PFP

Our Favorite Targets For Undrafted Free Agents in 2011

2011-04-30T23:32:00.001-04:00

Here is the updated lists!

Ricky Lumpkin
Corbin Bryant

Ian Williams

Will Yeatman
David Mims

Tim Barnes
Jake Kirkpatrick

Dane Sanzenbacher
Ricardo Lockette
Jeff Maehl
Fred Rouse

Derrick Locke

Andre Smith
Chris Blohm

OLB

Ugo Chinasa
Thomas Keiser
Ryan Winterswyk
Adrian Moten
Steven Friday

ILB

Mark Herzlich
Jeff Tarpinian
Marc Schiechl
Michael Lockley

Joe Lefeged
Jeron Johnson

Mike Coughlin

Patriot Specific Day 3 Draft Prospects Remaining

2011-04-30T11:35:00.000-04:00

We should probably add a number of other guys to broaden the following lists but without the time last night or this morning to do the detailed accurate work necessary we will leave the original list in tack for Day 3.

Here is the updated lists!

* Cameron Jordan (1)
~~JJ Watt (1)~~
~~Corey Liuget (1-2)~~
~~Cameron Heyward + (2)~~
~~Muhammad Wilkerson (1-2)~~
~~Allen Bailey (2-3)~~
* Jarvis Jenkins (3)
~~Kenrick Ellis ^ (3-4)~~
Ricky Lumpkin (7-UDFA)
Corbin Bryant (7-UDFA)

POTENTIAL ELEPHANTS

~~Adrian Clayborn (1-2)~~
* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Cameron Jordan (1)

SUB INSIDE PASS RUSHER

* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Terrell McClain (4-5)

* Anthony Castonzo $ (1)
Nate Solder (1) PATRIOTS
* Gabe Carimi + (1)
~~Marcus Gilbert (3-4)~~
James Brewer (3-4)
Chris Hairston (5-6)
~~Jah Reid (5-6)~~
Will Yeatman (7-UDFA)

OT/OG

* Danny Watkins $ (1-2)
* James Carpenter (3)
* Ben Ijalana (2)
* Orlando Franklin ^ (2-3)
Lee Ziemba (4-5)

* Clint Boling (2-3)
* Will Rackley (4)
Andrew Jackson (5-6)
Mike Person (7-UDFA)

OG/C

* Mike Pouncey $ (1-2)
~~Rodney Hudson (2-3)~~
~~Stefen Wisniewski (2-3)~~
~~John Moffit (4)~~
Tim Barnes (4)
* Brandon Fusco (5)

* Randall Cobb (2-3)
~~Greg Little ^ (2-3)~~
* Greg Salas (3-4)
* Austin Pettis (3-4)
Tandon Doss + (3-4)
Dane Sanzenbacher (5-6)
* Jeremy Kerley (5)
* Cecil Shorts (5-6)
Jeff Maehl (6-7)
Fred Rouse (UDFA)

~~Mark Ingram (1)~~
~~Ryan Williams ^ (2)~~
* Daniel Thomas (3)
* Kendall Hunter + (2-3)
Jordan Todman (3)
Shane Vereen (3) PATRIOTS
* Roy Helu (4)
Johnny White (5)
* Alex Green (5-6)
DaRel Scott (5-6)
Stevan Ridley (6-7) **added** PATRIOTS

~~Kyle Rudolph + (1-2)~~
* Virgil Green (4-5)
* Rob Housler (3-4)
Julius Thomas (5)
Andre Smith (5-6)
Chris Blohm (UDFA)

OLB

~~Ryan Kerrigan (1-2)~~
* Justin Houston ^ (2)
~~Akeem Ayers (2)~~
~~Jabaal Sheard ^ (2)~~
~~Brooks Reed (2-3)~~
Sam Acho (3)
* Greg Romeus + (4)
Ugo Chinasa (4-5)
* Jeremy Beal (4-5)
Ricky Elmore (4-5)
Thomas Keiser (6-7)

ILB

Colin McCarthy (4)
~~Mason Foster (4)~~
* Mark Herzlich + (4-5)
Mike Mohamed (6)
JT Thomas (6-7)
Doug Hogue (6-7)
Jeff Tarpinian (7-UDFA)
Marc Schiechl (7-UDFA)
Michael Lockley (7-UDFA)

SUB OUTSIDE PASS RUSHER

Chris Carter (3)
* Dontay Moch (3-4)
* Adrian Moten (5-6)
JT Thomas (6-7)

~~Brandon Harris (2)~~
Ras-I Dowling (2-3) PATRIOTS
* Johnny Patrick (2-3)
~~Curtis Brown (2-3)~~
* Buster Skrine (5)
Chykie Brown (4)
* Cortez Allen ^ (5)

~~Aaron Williams (2)~~
* Rahim Moore (2)
~~Marcus Gilchrist (3)~~
* Jaiqwuan Jarrett (3)
Quinton Carter (4)
* Joe Lefeged (4-5)
* Mark LeGree (6-7)

Ryan Mallet (1-2) ^ **added** PATRIOTS
* Greg McElroy (5)
Ricky Stanzi (4)
Mike Coughlin (7-UDFA)

IT'S GONNA COST YOU DRAFT PICKS

* Marcel Dareus $ (1)
* AJ Green $ (1)
* Patrick Peterson $ (1)
~~Prince Amukamara (1)~~
~~Julio Jones + (1)~~

LEGEND

* = personal likes

+ = medical question (injury prone or questionable longevity of repairs)

$ = safe pick (Very high floor)

^ = question (as simple as cockiness, effort, instincts, or more serious like past legal troubles)

Patriots Have Full Board For Day Two Of The 2011 NFL Draft

2011-04-29T08:58:00.001-04:00

With ONLY 20 Patriot specific prospects off our list in the top 32(the Patriots grabbing one of them), the Patriots have a board full of options available to them for day two of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Here is the updated lists!

* Cameron Jordan (1)
~~JJ Watt (1)~~
~~Corey Liuget (1-2)~~
~~Cameron Heyward + (2)~~
~~Muhammad Wilkerson (1-2)~~
Allen Bailey (2-3)
* Jarvis Jenkins (3)
Kenrick Ellis ^ (3-4)
Ricky Lumpkin (7-UDFA)
Corbin Bryant (7-UDFA)

POTENTIAL ELEPHANTS

~~Adrian Clayborn (1-2)~~
* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Cameron Jordan (1)

SUB INSIDE PASS RUSHER

* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Terrell McClain (4-5)

* Anthony Castonzo $ (1)
Nate Solder (1) PATRIOTS
* Gabe Carimi + (1)
Marcus Gilbert (3-4)
James Brewer (3-4)
Chris Hairston (5-6)
Jah Reid (5-6)
Will Yeatman (7-UDFA)

OT/OG

* Danny Watkins $ (1-2)
* James Carpenter (3)
* Ben Ijalana (2)
* Orlando Franklin ^ (2-3)
Lee Ziemba (4-5)

* Clint Boling (2-3)
* Will Rackley (4)
Andrew Jackson (5-6)
Mike Person (7-UDFA)

OG/C

* Mike Pouncey $ (1-2)
Rodney Hudson (2-3)
Stefen Wisniewski (2-3)
John Moffit (4)
Tim Barnes (4)
* Brandon Fusco (5)

* Randall Cobb (2-3)
Greg Little ^ (2-3)
* Greg Salas (3-4)
* Austin Pettis (3-4)
Tandon Doss + (3-4)
Dane Sanzenbacher (5-6)
* Jeremy Kerley (5)
* Cecil Shorts (5-6)
Jeff Maehl (6-7)
Fred Rouse (UDFA)

~~Mark Ingram (1)~~
Ryan Williams ^ (2)
* Daniel Thomas (3)
* Kendall Hunter + (2-3)
Jordan Todman (3)
Shane Vereen (3)
* Roy Helu (4)
Johnny White (5)
* Alex Green (5-6)
DaRel Scott (5-6)

Kyle Rudolph + (1-2)
* Virgil Green (4-5)
* Rob Housler (3-4)
Julius Thomas (5)
Andre Smith (5-6)
Chris Blohm (UDFA)

OLB

~~Ryan Kerrigan (1-2)~~
* Justin Houston ^ (2)
Akeem Ayers (2)
Jabaal Sheard ^ (2)
Brooks Reed (2-3)
Sam Acho (3)
* Greg Romeus + (4)
Ugo Chinasa (4-5)
* Jeremy Beal (4-5)
Ricky Elmore (4-5)
Thomas Keiser (6-7)

ILB

Colin McCarthy (4)
Mason Foster (4)
* Mark Herzlich + (4-5)
Mike Mohamed (6)
JT Thomas (6-7)
Doug Hogue (6-7)
Jeff Tarpinian (7-UDFA)
Marc Schiechl (7-UDFA)
Michael Lockley (7-UDFA)

SUB OUTSIDE PASS RUSHER

Chris Carter (3)
* Dontay Moch (3-4)
* Adrian Moten (5-6)
JT Thomas (6-7)

Brandon Harris (2)
Ras-I Dowling (2-3)
* Johnny Patrick (2-3)
Curtis Brown (2-3)
* Buster Skrine (5)
Chykie Brown (4)
* Cortez Allen ^ (5)

Aaron Williams (2)
* Rahim Moore (2)
Marcus Gilchrist (3)
* Jaiqwuan Jarrett (3)
Quinton Carter (4)
* Joe Lefeged (4-5)
* Mark LeGree (6-7)

* Greg McElroy (5)
Ricky Stanzi (4)
Mike Coughlin (7-UDFA)

IT'S GONNA COST YOU DRAFT PICKS

* Marcel Dareus $ (1)
* AJ Green $ (1)
* Patrick Peterson $ (1)
~~Prince Amukamara (1)~~
~~Julio Jones + (1)~~

LEGEND

* = personal likes

+ = medical question (injury prone or questionable longevity of repairs)

$ = safe pick (Very high floor)

^ = question (as simple as cockiness, effort, instincts, or more serious like past legal troubles)

Stats Are For Losers - OLB Extreme Edition 2011

2011-04-28T14:08:00.002-04:00

Numerical analysis of the OLB's in the draft. As with any statistical post, it is only for entertainment purposes and not to make any sort of definite decisions with.

The basic combine measurements and a few simple formulas to analyze those numbers are used. It includes every 3-4 OLB drafted in the last 5 drafts, plus notable UDFA's. As complete as possible. Some players are missing, (notably Elvis Dumervil), unfortunately those players do not have useful numbers available.

All the players are rated via a simple rating system. Over-complicating the rating is a waste of time. Here is the key:

Obviously I had to choose a starter for some teams. I didn't bother to make "he's a backup but should be starting" or "he's starting but he sucks" assumptions. But I did have to assume the starter for some teams. The 2010 guys in red are obviously not injury busts, but they couldn't be evaluated because of injury, so they get lumped into that group.

A couple other minor matters, gray text are assumed values. Dark violet text is pro day data. All other data is combine data (I used combine data wherever possible).

The basic methodology is to sort the players into various groups, to concentrate the good ones. After adding another draft and more prospects, I got to thinking that the way I had it was a bit too complex, and wasn't necessarily telling me the right things, nor was it portraying things as I think they should.

Therefore I've gone through and questioned all of my assumptions, and redone the sorting. Why I try to capture, what the numbers are saying, is the degree of risk involved with each player, as the numbers see it.

Formulas used:
Mass = weight/height
Explosive Power = (vert+3.5*broad)*(weight/height)/3000
Speed 10 = 100*(1-(10 Split/(0.0114*(weight/height)+1.1785)))
Speed 40 = 100*(1-(40 time/(0.0397*(weight/height)+3.092)))
Speed Avg = (Speed 10 + Speed 40)/2
Agility = 100*(1-(3 Cone/(0.0573*(weight/height)+4.8403)))
Twitch = Shuttle - 2*10 yd split - (1.60 - 10 yd split)

Explosive power is a general measure of the amount of force the player can generate coming out of their stance.

The 10, 40, and agility measures come from graphing the drill vs. mass for all players, and finding the equation of best fit linear trend-line of the data. It is a grade vs. the average of the drill for a given player mass.

Twitch something that I came up with similar to the fairly well known 40 time minus the shuttle time, that uses a 10 yd split instead of the 40. Since it is a 20 yd vs. 20 yd comparison, guys that can change directions fast will have a lower number, and they will appear sudden on tape. The bit at the end is a modifier that rewards fast guys and penalizes slow guys as it is meant to approximate how sudden a player looks with their movements. Lower is better.

High Risk:

First things first, I went and filtered off every player that scored higher than a 1.05 in the explosive power formula. Those players don't seem to be affected by doing well or poor in other drills. Probably an incorrect assumption, but lacking a test case of a guy that does terrible otherwise, it will have to stick for now.

Other than that, I sorted guys by the twitch measure, the first group here are guys that scored 1.20 or worse in the twitch formula. It is sorted by draft position. This is a very high risk group, draft with extreme caution. Wimbley is the only one to amount to anything thus far (even though he isn't' with the team that drafted him any longer), but overall he is probably the best across the board in this group workout-wise.

One thing to note about Wimbley, guys that run a 3 cone under 7 typically will have a scouting report that reads that they have an outside speed rush in their arsenal. The drill isn't all that bad at approximating the movements required for the rush. While that is but a facet of OLB play, it is one, and can go a long way to explaining why Wimbley is the lone bright spot pretty much in this group (Ayers is a yellow too, but aside from technically being a starter, he hasn't shown much).

Moderate Risk:

These guys all measured between 1.10 and 1.19 in the twitch formula. The group is sorted by draft position. There area only a limited number of sub-7.0 3 cone guys, so I didn't split them out.

Success has gone up markedly here over the last group, however no-one in this group is beating down Canton's door. Players in this group seem to have a very definite ceiling, and though they make make good complimentary players, you probably are not looking at a pass rusher to be feared.

Still, players are worth a draft pick. Like I said, moderate risk, no notable busts, however keep your expectations in check with these guys if you want to be happy. Solid has to be good enough.

Mid-Low Risk:

You can see a trend developing. These are all the guys that scored under a 1.10 in the twitch formula, however that also ran slower than a 7.0 3 cone. Again sorted by draft position. Babin will forever be considered a bust by the team that drafted him, however he did record double digit sacks and go to the pro bowl this year as a DE. Laboy has always been pretty good at getting to the QB. He's just always banged up. Mid round guys are definitely worth taking a flier on.

One thing that holds true for this group, of the ones that got it going, it took them all a while to do so. None of them really did much early in their careers.

Low Risk 1:

This is the other half of the last group, all the guys that both had a score of less than 1.10 in the twitch formula, and had a 3 cone time of under 7.0. Again sorted by draft position.

One thing to take note of is how most of the lesser players are slow. Show up in this group and a guy has a good chance of working out for you. Draft players in this group with confidence.

Low Risk 2:

Every player that scored above a 1.05 in the power formula.

Sort of unbelievable, draft with confidence in this group? Adapted from GreenBay user post.

Stats Are For Losers - DE Extreme Edition 2011

2011-04-28T13:47:00.002-04:00

This encompasses every single player that was drafted to play 3-4 DE from '04-'10, some UDFA's, plus all that I could find that switched teams, plus most of this year's prospects.

All prospects are color coded by a simple rating system:

Gray text is assumed values, for when data isn't available (not used much, but it has its uses). Dark violet text is pro day data. All other data is combine data (I used combine data wherever possible).

Houston players yet to switch to a 3-4 are unrated, like rookies (hopefully I got 'em all).

Slow Pokes:

This is the first filter for prospects. Here there was way more correlation with the quality of the 10 than the quality of the 40, so 10 times were used.

My speed rating formula:
100*(1-(10 Time/(0.0114*(Wt/Ht)+1.1785)))

Was used, every prospect scoring -1.00 or less is in this group. Slow players are low success players, at least in the defensive front 7, here is no different. This is a very strong trend, I would personally avoid any in the slow group unless I was REALLY sure about them otherwise.

I came up with a 3-4 DE specific metric, formula that seems unusually effective. There was a correlation between the SS and the 3C, but not necessarily both, being good at one or the other seemed good enough. So I came up with the 3-4 DE simple agility rating formula, which is:

Agility Rating = 4.80 - SS + 7.80 - 3C

Which has a better correlation than either the 3 cone or the short shuttle individually.

The players above are sorted by their agility rating.

There is one player who is fast enough, but unusually unagile, but I didn't bother to print out his #'s, Kade Weston of NE.

.....

From there I split them into 3 different player types based on their mass. The DE types, the UT types, and the NT types. The first group split off was the NT group.

NT Types:

What defines a NT type? I used weight/height, if over 50.0, they are a jumbo DE or NT sized.

I split this group off early because their success seems at best vaguely related to the success of other groups.

The NT group is sorted by their explosive power rating, the same formula used for 3-4 OLB's.

Explosive power rating = (Vert + 3.5*Broad)*(Wt/Ht) / 3000

There isn't really a good way to rate this group apparent yet, I just kinda threw them all together and picked a sort that seemed appropriate, Ngata is #1 by many different sorts.

Low Explosion DE Types:

There are an unusual number of these guys this year.

What defined a DE types was anything less than 47.0 in the simple mass formula listed above (seemed like an appropriate place).

This group also had less than 1.00 in the explosive power rating formula.

There is some success in this group, and no outright busts, though there aren't any elite players either. Some good ones though. Many of these guys are pretty good at getting to the QB.

This group is sorted by the agility rating formula.

I don't have an issue with drafting any player in this group, especially those guys at top.

High Explosion, Low Agility DE Types:

This group used the same sizing criteria as the low explosion DE types, however everybody in this group scored 1.00 or better in the explosive power rating formula.

Oddly enough, there doesn't seem to be as much success here, but there is a good reason it seems. upcoming will be a different group that filters the cream of the crop off of this group. This group all performed relatively poorly in the agility drills, all have an agility rating of <0.50.

With no prospects this year, this group isn't all that interesting.

This group is sorted by the agility rating formula.

Low Explosion UT Types:

The UT types are defined as being between 47.0 and 50.0 in the simple mass formula. All of these guys scored less than a 1.00 in the explosive power formula.

Overall the rules for the DE types and the UT types seem the same. Both are broken into the same groups.

This is overall a very boom or bust group.

This group is sorted by the agility rating formula.

Unlike the DE types, there have been no high explosion, low agility UT types drafted or tried at 3-4 DE in the last 7 years.

Superior Prospects:

This group is assembled without regards to size. Every player in this group passed the speed filter, has a explosive power rating greater than 1.00, and an agility rating greater than 0.50. The only measurables not considered for inclusion in this group are arm length, bench reps, and 40 time (10 time is, 40 is used in lieu of the 10).

This is a group of across the board good athletes for the position.

There is a lot of success here. However it is a group that also averages 1.5 prospects per year. These guys are RARE.

Summary:

I think there are two strong trends here. Guy that are slow in the 10 don't make good 3-4 DE's. Guys that are very good across the board, have a very good chance of working out. Other guys are a bit hit or miss, however guys with good cone and shuttle times seem to do better.

Adapted from GreenBay users post.

Updated Pats Draft Player Board By Position And Round

2011-04-25T15:41:00.018-04:00

A player list composed of New England Patriots possible fits that I like. A player might make the list for any number of reasons. Typically a player makes the list for matching multiple criteria including value for where they are projected to be drafted in relation to Patriots needs/priorities vs. currently rostered depth at each given position.

The following lists also contain our conservatively skewed target rounds in which we think the player represents the most value.

The updated lists!

* Cameron Jordan (1)
JJ Watt (1)
Corey Liuget (1-2)
Cameron Heyward + (2)
Muhammad Wilkerson (1-2)
Allen Bailey (2-3)
* Jarvis Jenkins (3)
Kenrick Ellis ^ (3-4)
Ricky Lumpkin (7-UDFA)
Corbin Bryant (7-UDFA)

POTENTIAL ELEPHANTS

Adrian Clayborn (1-2)
* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Cameron Jordan (1)

SUB INSIDE PASS RUSHER

* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Terrell McClain (4-5)

* Anthony Castonzo $ (1)
Nate Solder (1)
* Gabe Carimi + (1)
Marcus Gilbert (3-4)
James Brewer (3-4)
Chris Hairston (5-6)
Jah Reid (5-6)
Will Yeatman (7-UDFA)

OT/OG

* Danny Watkins $ (1-2)
* James Carpenter (3)
* Ben Ijalana (2)
* Orlando Franklin ^ (2-3)
Lee Ziemba (4-5)

* Clint Boling (2-3)
* Will Rackley (4)
Andrew Jackson (5-6)
Mike Person (7-UDFA)

OG/C

* Mike Pouncey $ (1-2)
Rodney Hudson (2-3)
Stefen Wisniewski (2-3)
John Moffit (4)
Tim Barnes (4)
* Brandon Fusco (5)

* Randall Cobb (2-3)
Greg Little ^ (2-3)
* Greg Salas (3-4)
* Austin Pettis (3-4)
Tandon Doss + (3-4)
Dane Sanzenbacher (5-6)
* Jeremy Kerley (5)
* Cecil Shorts (5-6)
Jeff Maehl (6-7)
Fred Rouse (UDFA)

Mark Ingram (1)
Ryan Williams ^ (2)
* Daniel Thomas (3)
* Kendall Hunter + (2-3)
Jordan Todman (3)
Shane Vereen (3)
* Roy Helu (4)
Johnny White (5)
* Alex Green (5-6)
DaRel Scott (5-6)

Kyle Rudolph + (1-2)
* Virgil Green (4-5)
* Rob Housler (3-4)
Julius Thomas (5)
Andre Smith (5-6)
Chris Blohm (UDFA)

OLB

Ryan Kerrigan (1-2)
* Justin Houston ^ (2)
Akeem Ayers (2)
Jabaal Sheard ^ (2)
Brooks Reed (2-3)
Sam Acho (3)
* Greg Romeus + (4)
Ugo Chinasa (4-5)
* Jeremy Beal (4-5)
Ricky Elmore (4-5)
Thomas Keiser (6-7)

ILB

Colin McCarthy (4)
Mason Foster (4)
* Mark Herzlich + (4-5)
Mike Mohamed (6)
JT Thomas (6-7)
Doug Hogue (6-7)
Jeff Tarpinian (7-UDFA)
Marc Schiechl (7-UDFA)
Michael Lockley (7-UDFA)

SUB OUTSIDE PASS RUSHER

Chris Carter (3)
* Dontay Moch (3-4)
* Adrian Moten (5-6)
JT Thomas (6-7)

Brandon Harris (2)
Ras-I Dowling (2-3)
* Johnny Patrick (2-3)
Curtis Brown (2-3)
* Buster Skrine (5)
Chykie Brown (4)
* Cortez Allen ^ (5)

Aaron Williams (2)
* Rahim Moore (2)
Marcus Gilchrist (3)
* Jaiqwuan Jarrett (3)
Quinton Carter (4)
* Joe Lefeged (4-5)
* Mark LeGree (6-7)

* Greg McElroy (5)
Ricky Stanzi (4)
Mike Coughlin (7-UDFA)

IT'S GONNA COST YOU DRAFT PICKS

* Marcel Dareus $ (1)
* AJ Green $ (1)
* Patrick Peterson $ (1)
Prince Amukamara (1)
Julio Jones + (1)

LEGEND

* = personal likes

+ = medical question (injury prone or questionable longevity of repairs)

$ = safe pick (Very high floor)

^ = question (as simple as cockiness, effort, instincts, or more serious like past legal troubles)

Drafting Philosophy

2011-04-14T10:54:00.001-04:00

Drafting. The only certain thing is that nothing is certain.

People often talk about BPA(Best Player Available) vs Need.

BPA is usually tied together with need and they are typically not mutually exclusive. At any given area or draft slot in the draft you will have a number of players on your board closely rated to each other at different football positions.

Try to imagine if you will a GM approaching his draft day selections following a sort of logic flow chart with conditional branches not unlike that of the three laws of robotics.

The following could possibly be an example of the thought process or flow of questions you might ask yourself when faced with being "On the clock".

1) Who is the best available player on our board, based on need, out of the grouping of similarly rated players, at this draft spot, still on the board?

2) Who is drafting behind us but before we draft again and what do we anticipate those teams needs are and what will they do when its their turn to draft based on whats still on the board?

3) How do the potential draftees still on the board, that we are considering, compare to who we have on the current roster at the same football position? Talent level aside, do we have any age, contract, or injury concerns at those same football positions to consider?

and finally...

4) What is the drop off between any player we are considering, now in this draft spot, compared to if we wait until or next pick or later to select for that same football position?

I think it is extremely rare or even non existent to be in a position where a player falls in your lap and is so overwhelmingly awesome in talent that you have to draft him even though you don't have ANY need at that particular football position. Every other organization in the draft would have to be asleep at the wheel for that to happen. Especially if you are typically picking later in the round such as is typically the case of the New England Patriots.

The Patriots, in general, do a fantastic job of letting the draft come to them. Fans should never really wish for them to fall in love with a player or chase.

Could TE Really Be a Fit in 2011

2011-04-13T21:53:00.003-04:00

A question was recently posed to me the other day on if the Patriots would draft Kyle Rudolph as a pure value play should he slip to the mid to late 2nd round because of his injury.

I thought about Rudolph, myself - a lot, but I can only envision the Patriots pulling the trigger if they are deciding to part ways with Crumpler "this" off-season. I don't see them carrying four TE's on the 2011 active roster and they already have a formidable TE group with Algre Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez.

I should clarify that I don't see the Patriots carrying 4 TE's on the active roster unless there is a new CBA that includes an 18 game season with expanded rosters.

Sure the Patriots "could" do it. They could also carry 6 TE's if they want. However, history is very much on the side of those saying they won't carry 4 TE's on the active roster. Even in recent history the Patriots have carried as few as only two TE's on the active roster. Moving up to three last season was a change so going on now to a 4th TE? I just don't see it.

I could envision Kyle Rudolph being as much a lure for a potential trade partner at Pick 28 or 33 as a QB though.

You never know with the Patriots.

Countdown To Impact DE/OLB Edition

2011-04-11T17:37:00.001-04:00

Pass rushing 3-4 OLB's who are converts from 4-3 DE's in college usually take time to develop. If we look at the NFL's 3-4 OLB sack leaders from the past FIVE seasons that had 10 or more sacks we see a short list.

Only 16 3-4 OLB's have posted a 10 sack season since 2006.

If we look at the list of those 16 players that put up double digit sacks in their first season the list shrinks to 4.

Below is the list and the number of seasons it took them to reach a double digit sack season.

* = Player not initially drafted to play 3-4 OLB or not drafted at all

+ = Player busted by the NFL for Performance Enhancing Drug use

PLAYER	CTI
Demarcus Ware	2 Yrs
Tamba Hali*	5 Yrs
Cameron Wake*	2 Yrs
Brian Orakpo	1 Yr
Clay Matthews	1 Yr
Terrell Suggs	1 Yr
Sean Phillips	3 Yrs
James Harrison*	5 Yrs
Lamaar Woodley	2 Yrs
Elvis Dumervil*	2 Yrs
Aaron Schobel*	3 Yrs
Joey Porter	2 Yrs
Mike Vrabel	11 Yrs
Shawn Merriman+	1 Yr
Jason Taylor*	4 Yrs
Adalius Thomas	6 Yrs

With the above evidence in view, even if the Patriots were to draft a DE/OLB high, we shouldn't expect to see immediate results. Especially in New England's defensive scheme.

By year 3, ELEVEN of the SIXTEEN acheived double digit sacks. The event horizon would point towards being 3 years.

Foreshadowing signs are often seen early with many of the above players having decent sack numbers, 5-8 sacks, in their first year of seeing significant playing time.

Not sure exactly how well that bodes for the future sack totals of Jermaine Cunningham.

Historical Support Showing Difficulty in Projecting DE to 34 OLB

2011-04-06T14:25:00.003-04:00

Before anyone goes all goofy talking about trade ups for an every down OLB type that also has superior pass rushing skills, have a look at some history.

I will make the argument right here and now that in the last DECADE there have only been 2 impact players selected at #17 or earlier, in the NFL draft, that have been DE to 3-4 OLB converts.

You are going to have to give up draft picks and pay that player much more money so you better be DARN sure you know how to pick that 1-2 players that comes along in a decade.

Good luck with that!

Here is the data.

Notable DE to 3-4 OLB converts picked #17 or earlier (or close enough to include)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

PLAYER	PICK #
Aaron Maybin	11th (Bust)
Robert Ayers	18th
Vernon Gholston	6th (Bust)
Jarvis Moss	17th (Bust)
Tamba Hali	20th
Demarcus Ware	11th
Marcus Spears	20th
Terrell Suggs	10th
Calvin Pace	18th

Consistent Sackers as a 3-4 OLB in past decade

-----------------------------------------------------------------

PLAYER	PICK	NOTES
Demarcus Ware	11th	Perennial double digit sack man
Tamba Hali	20th	Not originally drafted to play 34 OLB but solid numbers at both DE/OLB
Cameron Wake	UDFA	Has only 1 major sack season. Jury still out but looks the part in 2nd season
Clay Mathews Jr	26th	Double digit sacks 1st 2 seasons but only had 7.5 sacks after week 2 last year
Terrell Suggs	10th	Started off 1st 2 seasons with double digit sacks, tapered off then strong 2010
Shaun Phillips	98th	After his rookie season he's had 6 straight seasons with 7 or more sacks
James Harrison	UDFA	1st 3 seasons, nada. The last 3 seasons, consecutive double digit sacks
Lamarr Woodley	46th	After his rookie season he's had 3 straight seasons of double digit sacks
Kamerion Wimbley	13th	Up & down, some call him a disappointment. 1st season and most recent, best
Elvis Dumervil	126th	3 of his 1st 4 seasons are impressive with 2 of those being in double digit sacks
Joey Porter	73rd	11 straight seasons of 5 sacks or more with 3 of those in double digits
Shawn Merriman	12th	Certainly had his impact while on juice but a shell of himself since, injuries also

Perhaps a player like Robert Quinn is the next Demarcus Ware, who knows. I am not a gambler. You have to be CERTAIN to make that kind of move up if you are the Patriots. History shows it to be a pretty good risk, especially without extensive college playing time to watch and production to evaluate.

The same or similar could be said for moving up into the top 5 for a shot at Von Miller.

Patriots Specific Big Board By Position And Round

2011-04-04T15:10:00.038-04:00

The following lists also contain our conservatively skewed target rounds in which we would feel most comfortable drafting the player in.

If you combine this post with our previous post and also take into account a priority order of the teams off-season needs you can really start to hone in on some target players by round.

Time to check out the lists!

DE

* Cameron Jordan (1)
JJ Watt (1)
Cameron Heyward + (2)
Phil Taylor ^ (2)
Muhammad Wilkerson (1-2)
* Jarvis Jenkins (3)
Lawrence Guy ^ (4)
Kenrick Ellis ^ (3-4)
Ricky Lumpkin (7-UDFA)
Corbin Bryant (7-UDFA)

* Anthony Castonzo $ (1)
* Gabe Carimi + (1)
Derrick Sherrod (1-2)
* Orlando Franklin ^ (2-3)
Marcus Gilbert (3-4)
James Brewer (3-4)
Jah Reid (5-6)
Will Yeatman (7-UDFA)

POTENTIAL ELEPHANTS

Adrian Clayborn (1-2)
* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Cameron Jordan (1)

SUB INSIDE PASS RUSHER

Marvin Austin (2)
* Allen Baily (2-3)
* Terrell McClain (4-5)

* Ben Ijalana (2)
* Danny Watkins $ (1-2)
* James Carpenter (3)
Clint Boling (2-3)
John Moffit (4)
Will Rackley (4)
Andrew Jackson (5-6)

Torrey Smith (2)
* Randall Cobb (2-3)
Greg Little ^ (2-3)
* Greg Salas (3-4)
* Austin Pettis (3-4)
Tandon Doss + (3)
Dane Sanzenbacher (5-6)
* Jeremy Kerley (5)
* Cecil Shorts (5-6)
* Lester Jean (6-7)
Jeff Maehl (6)
Chris Matthews (6-7)
Fred Rouse (UDFA)

OG/C

* Mike Pouncey $ (1-2)
Rodney Hudson (2-3)
Stefen Wisniewski (2-3)
Tim Barnes (4)
* Brandon Fusco (5)

Ryan Williams ^ (2)
* Kendall Hunter + (2-3)
* Daniel Thomas (3)
Jordan Todman (3)
Shane Vereen (3)
* Roy Helu (4)
Taiwan Jones (3-4)
Johnny White (5)
* Alex Green (5-6)
DaRel Scott (5-6)

Virgil Green (4-5)
Rob Housler (4)
Julius Thomas (5)
Andre Smith (5-6)
Chris Blohm (UDFA)

OLB

* Justin Houston ^ (2)
Akeem Ayers (2)
Jabaal Sheard ^ (2)
Brooks Reed (2-3)
Sam Acho (3)
* Greg Romeus + (4)
Ugo Chinasa (4-5)
Jeremy Beal (4-5)
Ricky Elmore (4-5)
Thomas Keiser (6-7)
D'Andre Reed (7-UDFA)

ILB

Colin McCarthy (4)
Mason Foster (4)
* Mark Herzlich + (4-5)
Mike Mohamed (6)
JT Thomas (6-7)
Jeff Tarpinian (7-UDFA)
Marc Schiechl (7-UDFA)
Michael Lockley (7-UDFA)

SUB OUTSIDE PASS RUSHER

Martez Wilson (2-3)
* Chris Carter (3)
* Dontay Moch (3-4)
* Adrian Moten (5-6)
JT Thomas (6-7)

Brandon Harris (2)
* Johnny Patrick (2-3)
Curtis Brown (2-3)
Brandon Hogan ^ (4)
* Buster Skrine (5)
Chykie Brown (4)
* Cortez Allen ^ (5)

Aaron Williams (2)
* Rahim Moore (2)
Marcus Gilchrist (3)
* Jaiqwuan Jarrett (3)
Quinton Carter (4)
* Joe Lefeged (4-5)
Shilo Keo (6)
* Mark LeGree (6-7)

* Greg McElroy (5)
Ricky Stanzi (4)
Mike Coughlin (7-UDFA)

IT'S GONNA COST YOU DRAFT PICKS

Marcel Dareus (1)
* AJ Green $ (1)
Prince Amukamara (1)
Julio Jones + (1)

LEGEND
* = personal likes
+ = medical question (injury prone or questionable longevity of repairs)
$ = safe pick (Very high floor)
^ = question (as simple as cockiness, effort, instincts, or more serious like past legal troubles)

2011 Draft Player Grade To Roster Comparisons

2011-03-31T11:24:00.009-04:00

One of the things fans often loose sight of when looking to draft players is whether or not the player is actually better than the players currently starting for the team at a given position; or even the backups for that matter.

Players in black are current rostered players.

Players in RED are mostly players NE drafted but are no longer with the team for varied reasons. Also a couple noteworthy FA's, marked with a *, that are no longer here.

Players in Blue are 2011 draft eligible players we are predicting to have a shot at being on the Patriots "real" radar.

The DAG is the players individual talent grade. The grade has no bearing on position or year in which the player came out. It's a pure talent grade. The talent grade is based on one websites "opinion", Draft Ace.com, and not 100% accurate or fact. No talent evaluator is.

NA = Not Applicable meaning the website only started doing grades in 2007 and no consistent data is available prior to that.

NR = The player was drafted during the years in which grades were being given but the player was not even on the websites radar to garner enough attention to merit a grade at all.

This exercise simply gives you a general guideline to think about when evaluating the overall talent level NE has at a given position regardless of the number of players or their age.

When doing your own mocks you should consider whether a player you are mocking at a draft slot is really going to make the team at all. It might be a position with plenty of talent and you would need to draft a player VERY high to make the team. Also bear in mind drafting someone for a position that would have only a slightly higher grade than the young talent that is already at the position. Are you really ready to cut ties so quickly with a 1st or 2nd year player that has proven he can play or shown improvement for only a marginal upgrade projection?

Finally, a few defensive players are listed under different positions than they played in college as to represent where most project them to play in a 3-4 defense.

OK, let's go! Have fun with it!

*** Centers ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Dan Koppen	5th	NA
Ryan Wendel*	UDFA	NR
Ted Larsen	6th	55
Jake Ingram	6th	NR
Mike Pouncey	?	87
Stefen Weisnewski	?	85
Rodney Hudson	?	72
Tim Barnes	?	60
Brandon Fusco	?	56

*** Guards ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Logan Mankins	1st	NA
Stephen Neil*	UDFA	NA
Dan Connolly*	UDFA	NA
Rich Ohrnberger	4th	NR
Mike Elgin	7th	NR
Ben Ijalana	?	82
Danny Watkins	?	87
John Moffit	?	80
Will Rackley	?	64
James Carpenter	?	64
Clint Boling	?	62
Andrew Jackson	?	45

*** Tackles ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Sebastian Vollmer	2nd	78
Nick Kaczur	3rd	NA
Mark LeVoir*	UDFA	NA
Thomas Welch	7th	45
George Bussey	5th	NR
Clint Oldenburg	5th	NR
Corey Hilliard	6th	40
Derek Sherrod	?	88
Gabe Carimi	?	90
Anthony Castonzo	?	85
Orlando Franklin	?	67
Marcus Gilbert	?	67
Joseph Barksdale	?	58
Jah Reid	?	45

*** Tight Ends ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Alge Crumpler*	2nd	NA
Rob Gronkowski	2nd	91
Aaron Hernandez	4th	77
Dan Graham	1st	NA
Ben Watson	1st	NA
Dave Thomas	3rd	NA
Virgil Green	?	58
Rob Housler	?	55
Julius Thomas	?	61
Andre Smith	?	45

*** Wide Receivers ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Deion Branch	2nd	NA
Wes Welker*	UDFA	NA
Brandon Tate	3rd	63
Julian Edelman	7th	NR
Taylor Price	3rd	76
Matt Slater	5th	NR
Randy Moss*	1st	NA
David Givens	7th	NA
Chad Jackson	2nd	NA
AJ Green	?	95
Torrey Smith	?	86
Randall Cobb	?	87
Dane Sanzenbacher	?	72
Jeff Maehl	?	71
Edmund Gates	?	67
Jeremey Kerley	?	64
Leonard Hankerson	?	59
Greg Salas	?	57
Cecil Shorts III	?	53
Chris Mathews	?	35

*** Quarterbacks ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Tom Brady	6th	NA
Brian Hoyer*	UDFA	56
Zac Robinson	7th	54
Kevin O'Connell	3rd	60
Matt Cassell	7th	NA
Andy Dalton	?	78
Greg McElroy	?	68
Ricky Stanzi	?	62
Colin Kaepernick	?	60
Scott Tolzien	?	45

*** Running backs ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
BenJarvis Green-Ellis*	UDFA	NR
Danny Woodhead*	UDFA	40
Laurence Maroney	1st	NA
Justise Hairston	6th	NR
Cedric Cobbs	4th	NA
Ryan Williams	?	88
Kendall Hunter	?	78
Jordan Todman	?	71
Shane Vereen	?	67
Daniel Thomas	?	66
DaRel Scott	?	58
Alex Green	?	55

*** Nose Tackles ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Vince Wilfork	1st	NA
Ron Brace	2nd	88
Kyle Love*	UDFA	NR
Ted Washington*	1st	NA
Phil Taylor	?	90
Kenrick Ellis	?	81
Jerrell Powe	?	73

*** Defensive Ends ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Ty Warren	1st	NA
Mike Wright*	UDFA	NA
Myron Pryor	6th	NR
Brandon Deaderick	7th	53
Kade Weston	7th	45
Darryl Richard	7th	45
Richard Seymour	1st	NA
Kareem Brown	4th	70
Jarvis Green	4th	NA
Cameron Jordan	?	94
JJ Watt	?	92
Marcell Dareus	?	93
Cameron Heyward	?	92
Muhammad Wilkerson	?	90
Adrian Clayborn	?	90
Christian Ballard	?	84
Allen Bailey	?	78
Lawrence Guy	?	72
Jarvis Jenkins	?	66
Terrell McClain	?	58

*** Outside Linebackers ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Jermaine Cunningham	2nd	68
Rob Ninkovich*	5th	NA
Tully Banta-cain	7th	NA
Shawn Crable	3rd	77
Justin Rogers	6th	30
Vince Redd*	UDFA	50
Justin Houston	?	89
Ryan Kerigan	?	90
Brooks Reed	?	87
Aldon Smith	?	90
Jaabal Sheard	?	76
Dontay Moch	?	75
Chris Carter	?	64
Ricky Elmore	?	72
Greg Romeus	?	66
Thomas Keiser	?	68
JT Thomas	?	45

*** Inside Linebackers ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Jerod Mayo	1st	88
Brandon Spikes	2nd	68
Gary Guyton*	UDFA	67
Dane Fletcher*	UDFA	45
Tyrone McKenzie	3rd	80
Bo Ruud	6th	NR
Oscar Lua	7th	35
Martez Wilson	?	89
Mark Herzlich	?	77
Casey Mathews	?	76
Mike Mohamed	?	68
Mason Foster	?	67

*** Safeties ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Brandon Meriweather	1st	83
Patrick Chung	2nd	82
James Sanders	4th	NA
Josh Barrett*	7th	73
Jarrad Page*	7th	NA
Sergio Brown*	UDFA	35
Bret Lockett*	UDFA	NR
Rodney Harrison*	5th	NA
Eugene Wilson	2nd	NA
Willie Andrews	7th	NA
Ray Ventrone*	UDFA	NA
Gus Scott	3rd	NA
Dexter Reid	4th	NA
Quinton Carter	?	78
Joe Lefeged	?	53
Jaiquawn Jarrett	?	64
Shilo Keo	?	61

*** Cornerbacks ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Devin McCourtey	1st	91
Leigh Bodden*	UDFA	NA
Darius Butler	2nd	89
Kyle Arrington*	UDFA	NA
Johnathan Wilhite	4th	52
Terrence Wheatley	2nd	77
Mike Richardson	6th	NR
Asante Samuel	4th	NA
Ellis Hobbs	3rd	NA
Prince Amukamara	?	93
Curtis Brown	?	69
Johnny Patrick	?	72
Buster Skrine	?	68
Chykie Brown	?	61
Cortez Allen	?	58

*** Punter ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Zoltan Mesko	5th	50

*** Kicker ***

PLAYER	RND	DAG
Stephen Gostkowski	4th	NA

Just a reminder that the idea of my post is to use a single source and show how players grade out at a position by that single source. It shows a fairly reasonable likely hood of if a player will make the team or what impact they will have.

The point is not about comparing grades across different evaluators. We all already know that will vary greatly because every evaluator has his or her own system for doing things.

If you look at a single source and realize its not an absolute as far as accuracy but a generalization, and more importantly a consistent view, then some things might come to light.

Look at the DE spot for example. NE has a very good player coming back, Ty Warren, from Hip surgery and its great IF he returns to form. Early indications are he is doing very well. Let's hope. After that? Brace made strides forward but is he really playing out of position at DE in a 3-4? Who do you have after that? Bunch of 6th, 7th, and undrafted guys. Status of Wrights concussion issues unknown. Pryor with another tricky back problem. You would think a number of options here would be upgrades for the Patriots.

TE you are set unless you want to move on from Crump. The only one who would likely supplant him would be Rudolph so you would have to use a very high pick on him and it appears NE has more urgent vacancies and lack of talent at other positions. I just don't see them carrying 4 TE's on the active roster but who knows.

Guard would be seem to be a problem potentially moving forward as well now that Neil has retired and Mankins continues to be disgruntled.

Center, based on the past two drafts rumors. It would seem to be a position they are looking at. NE was rumored to have strong interest in Eric Wood 2 years ago and Pouncey last year. Probably a center/guard type. Koppen has been a find as a 5th rounder, contract and age coming up and Wendell being considered a very solid backup but not the guy you want starting for you.

I personally do NOT think we need any WR's. The Pats scored 30+ points in the final 8 games of the season. I would rather Brady get off his binkies. If anyone still buys the old "Brady's favorite receiver is the open one" you are watching different games than I am. Brady can be ridiculously stubborn. You have 3 good young WR's waiting in the wings and I am not even certain yet that they don't have a guy who can play in Jenkins on the practice squad. Are there a handful of guys who are certainly better than what we have? Yes. Do you want to waste a high pick to get one of them when comparing the needs elsewhere on the team? I don't. Some are probably wondering how Hankerson, based on the senior bowl, can have such a low grade. Draft Ace is not the only source where i have read that his college game tape does not match the senior bowl performace. The grades are based on a players collegiate careers. If anyone remembers, Mardy Gilyard had a similar senior bowl game as Hankerson last year. Gilyard only had 6 catches for 63 yards this season for the Rams, a team that needs a good WR.

At running back NE has 2 undrafted guys so you would think even mid round guys have an opportunity to make it and contribute without even going for a top guy.

The all import OLB spot has a real lack of "talent" according to the grading and there are a slew of options even into later rounds that could possible turn out to be upgrades. This is certainly looking like a year in which BB once again tries to address this position. Possibly still not as high as everyone is thinking due to the difficulty projecting the position so we'll see how it all plays out. One player I was hoping would be a little bit more dominant at the senior bowl week was Ryan Kerrigan. I love his character and motor and there is no denying his consistent production throughout his entire collegiate career. The fact that he wasn't more dominant in one-on-one drills at the senior bowl was a bit of a downer. In general I expect a defensive player to be at advantage in a one-on-one drill as he's not being chipped from a TE or RB and does not have to worry about inside help from a guard on an inside spin move. The defensive player should win more one-on-one battles with no one to either side of the blocker for support.

The safety spot like the running back spot has some good options that they could resign from there own team or FA's like Weddle, Manning, or huff. This years safety draft class is considered weak as a whole so not sure how much a later round guy will contribute or if he'll make the team.

Looking at the talent pool again of the cornerback group leaves me less than thrilled and I have to assume the Pats are at least a little bit concerned that Butler has played so poorly considering his talent level and high draft position. He's soft. Seeing another one taken in that 3rd to 4th round range would not surprise me.

Stats Are For Losers - DE/OLB Edition 2011

2011-03-17T00:38:00.019-04:00

If anyone knew without a doubt who would consistently get sacks or pressure rushing from a base 3-4 OLB spot in New England's defensive system, the Patriots would want your knowledge for sure.

The fact of the matter, whether scouts want to admit it or not, is that they have no idea with any certainty who will without doubt be a monster sack master at a given position for a given team. If they did then you would not see so many misses in the first round and hits later in the draft at the DE/OLB position.

Let's take a look at some stats from this years crop of DE/OLB types and compare those to both the drafts historically best convert types and also to some existing players at the position currently on the Patriots roster.

The following are all numbers coming out of college: (cross referenced and as accurate as I could)

Non First Rounders 2011

PLAYER	PICK#	HT	WT	Yrs	T	TFL/Yrds	FF	INT	S	QBH	DAG	10Yrd	SS	3C	BJ	VJ	EXP
Sam Acho	?	6'2	262	4 Yrs	136	32.5/250	8	0	20	20	80	1.66	4.32	6.69	9'4	33.5	65
Brooks Reed	?	6'3	263	4 Yrs	107	25/151	5	0	18	1	87	1.54	4.28	7.11	9'5	30.5	69
Jabaal Sheard	?	6'3	264	4 Yrs	141	35.5/186	5	0	19	38	76	1.59	4.65	7.34	9'7	31	?
Greg Romeus	?	6'5	264	3 Yrs	135	38.5/186	4	1	19	17	66	?	?	?	?	?	?
Chris Carter	?	6'1	248	4 Yrs	204	37.5/175	7	0	18.5	8	64	1.59	4.34	6.88	9'6	36	72
Dontay Moch	?	6'1	248	4 Yrs	189	62.5/304	9	0	30	3	75	1.57	4.38	7.09	10'8	42	73

Potential First Rounders 2011

PLAYER	PICK#	HT	WT	Yrs	T	TFL/Yrds	FF	INT	S	QBH	DAG	10Yrd	SS	3C	BJ	VJ	EXP
Von Miller	?	6'3	243	4 Yrs	178	50.5/269	10	1	33	8	92	1.57	4.06	6.70	10'6	37	68
Aldon Smith	?	6'4	260	2 Yrs	108	29/173	2	1	17	1	90	1.66	4.50	7.19	9'10	34	63
Robert Quinn	?	6'4	265	2 Yrs	86	25.5/139	8	0	13	15	92	1.61	4.40	7.13	9'8	34	65
Ryan Kerrigan	?	6'4	265	4 Yrs	210	55.5/282	4	1	33	2	90	1.61	4.39	7.18	10.2	33.5	73
Akeem Ayers	?	6'3	254	4 Yrs	215	27.5/128	5	6	15	0	90	1.68	4.28	7.49	9'8	31	58
Justin Houston	?	6'3	265	3 Yrs	110	38.5/176	3	1	19	5	89	1.61	4.37	6.95	10'5	36.5	76

On the Patriots Roster

PLAYER	PICK#	HT	WT	Yrs	T	TFL/Yrds	FF	INT	S	QBH	DAG	10Yrd	SS	3C
Jermaine Cunningham	53	6'3	252	4 Yrs	145	32/147	5	1	18	11	68	1.60	?	?
Rob Ninkovich*	135	6'3	251	2 Yrs	71	26.5/?	1	2	16	?	?	1.66	4.18	6.96
Eric Moore*	186	6'4	262	4 Yrs	82	30.5/?	4	0	14	34	?	1.81	4.57	7.62

Past Players Drafted

PLAYER	PICK#	HT	WT	Yrs	T	TFL/Yrds	FF	INT	S	QBH	DAG	10Yrd	SS	3C
Lamaar Woodley	46	6'2	265	4 Yrs	199	52.5/?	3	0	28	?	75	1.65	4.42	?
Clay Mathews	26	6'3	240	4 Yrs	94	13.5/91	4	0	5	2	88	1.49	4.18	6.90
Demarcus Ware	11	6'4	262	4 Yrs	195	57/251	10	1	27.5	74	?	1.62	4.07	6.85
Terrel Suggs	10	6'3	258	2 Yrs	90	34/151	8	1	20	?	?	?	?	?
Willie McGInest	4	6'5	270	4 Yrs	193	48/238	?	?	29	?	?	?	?	?
Vernon Gholston	6	6'3	266	2 Yrs	85	30.5/199	0	1	22	1	95	1.53	4.40	7.12
Shuan Phillips	98	6'3	255	4 Yrs	173	37.5/?	5	?	33.5	?	?	1.68	4.23	6.95
Elvis Dumervil	126	6'0	255	3 Yrs	110	19.5/77	2	1	25	?	?	1.68	?	?
Anthony Spencer	26	6'3	261	3 Yrs	149	42.5/?	11	0	19	?	78	1.60	4.43	7.14
Jarvis Moss	17	6'6	250	2 Yrs	82	11/68	5	0	14	12	82	1.59	4.41	7.21
Aaron Maybin	11	6'4	249	2 Yrs	61	24.5/118	4	0	16	1	91	1.57	4.38	7.52
Connor Barwin	46	6'4	256	1 Yrs	49	14.5/89	0	0	11	7	86	1.53	4.18	6.87
Kamerion Wimbley	13	6'4	248	4 Yrs	82	18.5/?	2	0	10	31	?	1.60	4.48	6.98
Shawn Crable	78	6'5	245	4 Yrs	147	40.5/142	7	0	17	5	77	1.56	4.55	7.29
Brian Orakpo	13	6'3	263	4 Yrs	101	29.5/200	1	0	21	27	93	1.56	4.45	7.26
Jason Worilds	52	6'1	254	3 Yrs	125	34/162	3	0	14	30	74	1.56	4.29	6.95
Sergio Kindle	43	6'3	250	4 Yrs	148	34.5/166	3	0	16	17	91	1.65	4.53	7.26
Koa Misi	40	6'3	251	4 Yrs	198	26/99	6	0	10	1	81	1.64	4.27	7.07

About the ONLY shred of definitive information I can glean from this collection of data is that Clay Mathews is a complete anomaly and also that there is inherently more risk to taking a 2 year contributor vs a 4 year contributor.

If anyone can look at this group of stats and say without a doubt who is going to be the next sack master in the Pats 3-4 scheme, awesome, let Belichick know it please.

It is so hard to tell who is going to fit and make the transition and play well in that Pats DE/OLB spot.

I for one claim to have no idea but looking at all of this I am starting to think I am discounting Von Miller too much. ...Not that he will be there at #17 anyway. He simply aggravates me for all the times he quits on a play when he rarely does not win the speed battle. I want to see him chasing more guys down with his speed from the back side past the line of scrimmage instead of watching. In my opinion he does not give that break your neck effort I wish he did. Nit-picking?

The Patriots rarely do anything special to get the OLB's any sort of free run at the QB like some other teams do. They do not blitz a ton and they also rarely seem to tell their OLB's to forget every other responsibility just go get the QB.

It should never be a surprise to someone to see a player have his sack totals go down upon arriving in NE and playing in their particular style of 3-4.

This collection of data clearly shows that collegiate stats are rarely an indicator of the type of future NFL success a player will have.

One has to look at the strength of competition, check out a live interview or two to get a feel for a kids intellect and how he handles the media, as well as get an idea of his technique/skill set/speed/quicks/motor etc.

* = player not drafted by the Patriots

(DAG = Draft Ace Grade)

History Shows Weight Guidelines of Pats 3-4 DE

2011-03-07T15:00:00.007-05:00

Take a look for yourself and decide who you think best fits the Patriots 34 defensive front.

Commonly Mentioned 2011 NFL Draft Options

PLAYER	WT.
Cameron Jordan	287
JJ Watt	290
Cameron Heyward	294
Phil Taylor	334
Muhammad Wilkerson	315
Jarvis Jenkins	310
Lawrence Guy	305

Currently Rostered Patriots Defensive Linemen

PLAYER	WT.	PICK #
Vince Wilfork	325	21st
Ty Warren	300	13th
Gerrard Warren*	330	3rd
Ron Brace	330	40th
Brandon Deaderick	305	247th
Mike Wright	295	UDFA
Myron Pryor	310	207th
Kyle Love	310	UDFA
Kade Weston	316	248th
Daryl Richard	295	234thh
Landon Cohen*	300	216th
Marcus Stroud*	310	13th

Recent Historical Drafted or Rostered Patriots Defensive Linemen

PLAYER	WT.	PICK #
Richard Seymour	310	6th
Jarvis Green	285	126th
LeKevin Smith	308	206th
Kareem Brown	285	127th

* - Player NOT drafted by the Patriots

Returners Are Top 5's

2011-03-07T09:49:00.002-05:00

Much has been made by outsiders that the Patriots need a WR in the draft for various reasons and we won't go in to that discussion here. One justification for bumping one of the young WR's on the roster for a new one has been that we can get the new WR to also possibly upgrade the return game because our current guys are not so great.

To throw cold water on that argument I submit the following...

Brandon Tate ranked 5th in the NFL for kickoff return average in the 2010 regular season out of players with at least 40 or more attempts at 25.8 yards per attempt. He was also one of only 5 players in the league to have returned a Kickoff for a TD at least twice in 2010.

Julian Edelman ranked 2nd in the NFL for punt return average in the 2010 regular season out of all players with at least 20 attempts or more with a 15.3 yard average per attempt. He was also one of only 6 players in the league to return a punt for a TD of that same group of qualifiers.

Nuff said.

Over-reactionary Game VS Ravens

2010-10-17T12:49:00.001-04:00

Week 6 for the Patriots is setting up to be such an over-reactionary game vs the Baltimore ravens no matter what happens in the game.

If the Patriots win it will be called huge. People will start saying watch out the the patriots. Here comes the Pats. The Patriots are coming. Super bowl, etc.

If we lose then its see the dynasty is dead. The Patriots still can't beat a good team with a winning record.

The manner in which the game is won or lost will lead to even more over reactions.

You can already hear the comments.

If Branch only has a catch or two and no TD's, it will be see we wasted a 4th round pick. Branch is done, his gas tank is empty. Why did we get rid of Moss?

If you add Welker only getting 4 or 5 catches it will be see Welker is nothing without Moss dragging all the double teams down field and opening up the underneath for Welker.

If Tate drops even one long ball he should probably catch you'll here the grumblings of he's no Moss. He can't replace Moss.That would have been a TD if it was Moss, etc.

The context or rationality of any of those things happening will not even matter. The statements will be thrown out there anyway. Belichick will be past his prime and will have made a huge mistake.

It won't matter if Tate has a great game in general, if he isn't running Moss routes and catching a long bomb TD. Which is dumb because that's not even his game and I hope they don't waste his talent just trying to send him deep all day.

If Welker did only end up with a small number of receptions, unlikely, it would not matter if it was because Edelman, Hernandez, Tate, Branch, Gronkowski, Woodhead, or anyone else was also making receptions and there are only so many balls to go around. You'll have the Ron Borges of the world trying to say see, see I told you see.

It won't matter if Branch isn't all involved and productive today even though he's been with the team less than a week. Or if they have other, better mismatches among their existing personnel than Branch is currently.

Then if Branch has a fantastic game it will be like Moss who? We never needed Moss. What a great trade Belichick made with Moss.

No matter what happens today, positive or negative, people are going to be way too positive or negative about the team or a given player based on one single game.

If the defense comes out and takes a beating today people will be calling the Miami game an aberration and lucky. Heck you have heard a fair amount of that already during the bye week.

People will again be insinuating Belichick has lost it if they lose and the defense has a bad game cause he will have gotten beaten at home after a bye week and past history says that doesn't happen. Past history in sports says nothing and means nothing. Different years, different teams, different circumstances. Let it go people.

If the defense happens to pitch a ridiculously great game then Belichick is once again a genius and all is right in the world. All the questionable draft pick mistakes are suddenly just now good picks again and it was simply a matter of maturing time for them.

Enjoy the game today people but don't over react to anything that happens in the game today, with the exception of a serious injury to one of our star players.

Starting tomorrow you will be able to get a good laugh at all of the comments being floated around out there and see just how many of them coincide with some of the quick thought ideas I wrote about here.

Patriots Reaquire WR Deion Branch

2010-10-11T21:59:00.002-04:00

The Patriots Reacquired wide receiver Deion Branch in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks for a 2011 fourth-round draft choice.

The Moss Saga Effect - Cliff Notes

2010-10-08T21:23:00.003-04:00

● Randy Moss acquired from Oakland in 2007 for a 4th round draft pick and signs a 1 year short money contract to prove himself.

● Moss, Brady and rest of 2007 team go on to have an unnatural, extraordinarily charmed season rewriting much of the NFL's record books.

● Patriots, Belichick, Brady, & McDaniels become the Rocky 3 analogy and get fat heads with egos and continue to try and force the ball deep to Randy Moss in double and triple coverage even after the NFL had adjusted and eventually lose the superbowl in their bid for the perfect season.

● Randy and New England come to terms on an extension for a three-year, $27 million deal that included a $12 million signing bonus as part of a total of $15 million in guarantees.

● Brady is lost for season and Moss continues to be a good soldier while helping Cassel and the rest of the patriots exceed expectations without Brady.

● 2009, The return of Brady and he thinks he can pick up where 2007 left off heaving it up to Randy and he will come down with it in double and triple coverage.

● It's clear Randy & Welker are Brady's binki's.

● Also clear the rest of the NFL is yawning at the 2007 game plan in 2009.

● Moss is noticeably less explosive and having trouble tracking the ball in the air with the same efficiency as he did in 2007.

● Fans forgive Randy's early dropsy's and whiffed blocks because he makes the occasional jaw dropping catch in the same way a shallow guy forgives the annoyances of his super hot girlfriend because she's so hot.

● Randy is called out by more than one source, both analyst and player alike for the occasional lack of effort on select deep routes.

● This may have actually started before now but the 1st recollection of effusive praise by Belichick, and Brady begins in defense of Randy Moss's ego.

● Moss is living on Revis island.

● Brady's either obsessed with Moss (and Welker, but Welker is usually open) or is trying to hard to be a good teammate and keep Randy happy.

● Tom becomes a poor decision making QB and continues to force the ball deep into coverage to Moss which leads to an increase in interceptions and a decrease in all of Brady's typical efficient production numbers and reputation for being clutch.

● Wonder Boy's record for wining when leading at halftime goes right out the window and his numbers are even worse late in the 4th quarter when the game is close.

● Patriots lose a recently unprecedented home playoff game in the 1st round by way of a physical beat down.

● Moss has 5 receptions for 48 yards and no TD's in playoff game while rookie 1st time ever playing WR Julian Edelman had 6 receptions, 44 yards but 2 TD's.

● Randy's 4 postseason game totals while playing for the Patriots? 12 receptions, 142 yards, and just 1 TD.

● 81 reapplies himself cause he's coming into a contract year and puts a positive spin on it as priding himself in getting off Revis Island.

● Labor issues loom and a possible work stoppage in 2011 becomes a real possibility.

● Moss speaks matter of fact about the business of football and understands it very well may be his last season as a Patriot because the Patriots do not typically pay out big money for aging WR's.

● The real Randy Moss goes radio silent.

● Press articles surface about an aloof and disgruntled Randy Moss at Patriots charitable event.

● Randy speaks after Bengals 2010 week 1 win to express desire to remain a Patriot but a need for a new contract to have security for himself and his family in these uncertain NFL times.

● O'Brien, Brady, and Patriots offense hits rock bottom vs jets with same old tired 2007 game plan.

● 81 gets one foot off Revis island with one unbelievable jaw dropping catch but otherwise is mostly shutdown, again.

● Rumors circulate about Randy Moss's agent requesting a trade on his behalf as well as news that talks about Randy's future with the patriots go back for several months. (Moss changed agents at one point thinking it might aid in the negotiations with the patriots but I do not recall exactly when he did that)

● Patriots organization has an epiphany and remember the old favorite receiver of Tom Brady, the open one.

● Speculation alert here, Belichick has a heart to heart with Moss and explains they won't address his contract until the end of the season AND by the way the team will no longer be strictly featuring you in our offensive system.

● More speculation. Randy requests trade again a little more strongly after drawing accurate conclusion that he will not be able to maximize his free agent value as a devalued asset in the Patriots offensive system.

● New England Patriots fear #81 will not be able to be on his best and most productive playing behavior, in this scenario, for the entire remainder of the season and work a trade to the Minnesota Vikings.

● Your favorite team pulls off the analogy of purchasing a perfectly Mint condition used Porsche from the dealership for next to nothing, drives the crap out of it for 3 years , and returns it back to another dealer and receives a bonus check by getting a 3rd round pick in return. (which by the way was two rounds higher than what was even possible in the best scenario as compensatory compensation if Moss had walked as a free agent and signed with someone else)

Case closed. Get it? Got it? Good!

Jackson vs Branch Analysis

2010-10-08T12:42:00.005-04:00

The Jackson deal seems unrealistic to me because non of it makes sense in regards to the Patriots.

1) San Diego has said it is not interested in Mankins and shot down the trade idea.
2) It has been reported that Jackson wants 30mil guaranteed. The Pats don't value the WR position to that extreme.
3) San Diego supposedly wants ridiculous Draft pick compensation. Again, The Pats historically do not value the WR that highly. They only gave up a single 4th rounder to get Moss and for a short contract as well.
4) Jackson has some sort of off field issues and that doesn't seem to fit traditional Pats mold.

5) Jackson was placed on some sort of exempt list that would require him to sit out for three games AFTER he was traded.

So many things are contrary to what the operational precedent has been set to by Patriots.

The Branch deal seems at least possible for a few reasons.

1) Could be a win-win for both teams if price is right.
2) Price could be very cheap with Seahawks wanting to be rid of Branch's contract, Branch's health history, and the Seahawks crowded receiving corp.
3) Branch knows the Patriots system, has worked well with Brady in past, and is widely considered to be a good locker room guy (at least when he was here in New England)
4) Branch might not have anything special left in the tank but does provide veteran knowledge of the game and position to a mostly very inexperienced Patriots receiving corp.

Do you think #4 is not necessary or important? I leave you with this nugget from my previous post. As the Patriots WR corp stands right now, Wes Welker accounts for approximately 77% of the NFL experience.

Tate, Edelman, Hernandez(TE/WR), Price, Slater.

These guys all have virtually no lengthy NFL experience as receivers. Edelman actually has the most NFL experience but the least overall WR experience except for "maybe" Slater.

Just having a guy like Branch around for continued veteran information adds value that is lost by the Moss trade. It is even more valuable if you got that player for next to nothing.

The last interesting bit of imformation to pass along are these recent quotes from Deion Branch in regards to returning to New England.

"You know what, I talk to guys all the time. I never wanted to leave, nor did coach [Bill] Belichick and his staff and the organization want me to leave, either. We just couldn't get the contractual part down. We just couldn't come to an agreement. And that stuff happens."

"I still love Coach Belichick and if the opportunity presents itself to come back, I would love to be there."

Team Stands Pat With Young Guns

2010-10-08T00:54:00.005-04:00

The Patriots had an open roster spot after trading Randy Moss to the Vikings. Rumors had surfaced all over about various options for filling that vacant spot. Trading for Vincent Jackson or Deion Branch, elevating Darnell Jenkins from the practice squad, etc.

In the end the patriots opted to resign Quinn Ojinnaka back to the active roster after releasing him last week to make room for Thomas Clayton. Clayton was brought back after being signed off the Browns practice squad because of his knowledge of the Patriots system, filling the void left by the injured and inactive Fred Taylor(Turf Toe).

We always assumed Ojinnaka would be resigned after the Miami game, during the bye week, and that Clayton would again be let go. The trade of Moss, however, left open the opportunity to resign Ojinakka without cutting Clayton. More accurately, the Patriots have to keep Clayton on the active roster for at least three weeks since he was signed from another teams practice squad.

This is exactly the kind of thing the Patriots do every season with their low hanging fruit. Players bounce on and off the active roster and practice squad week to week through out the season as the teams weekly needs change. Those needs could be injury related, opponent related, or any other reason. When it comes to being opponent related, the team might require a specific skill set for their scout team they currently don't have on roster.

So at the moment the Patriots are standing Pat with its current crop of mostly inexperienced young receiver options.

Welker (The senior member of the crew at a whopping 29 yrs old, & 82 pro games)

Tate (23 yr old, 6 pro games)

Edelman (24 yr old, 14 pro games)

Hernandez (20 yr old, 4 pro games, including Hernandez even though he's listed as a TE)

Price (22 yr old, 0 pro games)

Slater (25 yr old, 32 pro games but I am not sure how many of those he even actually played WR in)

Total number of combined Pro Game experiences for Patriots young receiving crew = 138 games

Average age of the Patriot receiver = 23.8

So Wes Welker basically has 60+% of the NFL game experience of the Patriots current receiving corp. If you strip out Slater's 32 games as I don't know how much he's actually played WR for the Patriots then Welker's percentage of the combined Patriots receiver NFL experience jumps to a whopping 77%.

Those are really some incredible numbers.

Official Patriots Statement on Moss Trade

2010-10-06T12:35:00.000-04:00

It's official,, Patriots have announced the trade of receiver Randy Moss to the Vikings.

"Over the course of the past several months, I have spoken with Randy and his representative about Randy's place on our team and his future in football. Consistent with my dealings with Randy from the day we acquired him through our conversation this morning, it has been honest, thoughtful and with great mutual respect," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said in a statement.

"While I will keep private the details of internal conversations with players and staff, suffice it to say that many things were taken into consideration before making the trade. In this business, there are complex and often difficult decisions, but it is my responsibility to make them based on what I feel is best for our football team, in both the short term and long term. I am grateful for the opportunity to have coached Randy Moss and aside from facing him as an opponent, I wish him the very best for the remainder of his Hall of Fame career."

Maroney Gallops Off To Denver Broncos

2010-09-14T23:36:00.003-04:00

Laurence Maroney was traded today to the Denver Broncos along with a 6th round pick in return for the Broncos 2011 4th round pick.

Maroney, a 2006 first-round draft choice, is getting a fresh start away from all the Patriot haters. Unfortunately for Maroney the fans of New England never fully embraced him. He had a hesitant start to his career, then serious season ending injuries, followed by a short but impromptu time of fumblitis last season.

The Patriots are going to hang their 2011 helmets on the very capable veterans of Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. Let's all pray they can make it through the season healthy. BenJarvus Green-Ellis remains a reliable and healthy backup plan.

Maroney is in the final year of his contract. The patriots are smart enough to know that you trade players while they still have value. With some key running back injuries already around the league during this young 2010 NFL season, the Patriots obviously fielded calls about Maroney's potential availability. Maroney very clearly had the highest trade value considering all of the existing rostered running backs also are in the last year of their respective contracts. Maroney is arguably the best running back on the team of the elder veterans, at the least the same quality, and a better running back than BJGE. The advantage Maroney has over Taylor, Morris, and Faulk is that he's a lot younger and has significantly fewer miles on his tires.

You might ask, then why only a 4th rounder? Keep in mind that Maroney will ultimately end up being a unrestricted free agent next year. That means who ever trades for him risks the possibility of only renting him for one season. How high a draft pick are you giving up for a one year rental?

Maroney, who was limited by a thigh injury of late, was inactive for the team’s season-opening win.

The interesting thing now will be to watch and see if Maroney can follow in the footsteps of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson? Two other running backs that did a better job of living up to expectations only after they got a change of scenery with a new team and a fresh start to their NFL careers.

Could Maroney still yet form a future formidable 1-2 running running back punch with Moreno in Denver?

Anything is possible.

They said... We Never Talked.

2010-09-07T12:21:00.002-04:00

With the rumors of an imminent Brady contract extension surfacing, some have talked about the idea that this would Make Mankins even more upset. Citing that Brady would be playing out his contract and then receiving a big money extention and that Mankins already had played out his contract and was being asked, by the Patriots, to play yet another year under the special CBA rules of the uncapped season.

I think that any anger on Mankins part towards the patriots would be misdirected. Logan, be mad at the union or possibly even yourself if you had a vote in the approval process of the CBA that the league is currently playing under. Not sure if that is the case. The Patriots are operating in the guidelines of the current CBA and still offered Mankins an extension with guaranteed money. He was made an offer or more than one, don't know, didn't like it and went home and threw a tantrum instead of continuing the tedious task of negotiation.

Jonathan Kraft was on the radio doing an interview and said plainly and directly that neither he nor his dad, Robert, has ever directly spoken to Mankins about any contract matters. That contradicts the insinuation by Mankins or at least the interpretations of what he said by the media about the Kraft family making promises to him and lying.

We'll never know the real story.

2010 Current Patriots Roster and Comments

2010-09-05T19:58:00.006-04:00

We were and are still feeling really great about our guesses and reasons for our 53 man roster projection. NO we didn't get everything exactly right but as the cuts kept coming there was a special satisfaction that we had either put to web what we were thinking or that we had at least discussed it privately with fellow fan friends.

OFFENSE

Quarterback (2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer

Running back (5): Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Wide receiver (6): Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Taylor Price, Matthew Slater

*Prior to the cuts rolling in we openly discussed the fact that we did not believe Aiken was worthy of having a spot on the 53 man roster. The question was who would take that spot. We easily reasoned that Aiken was probably the sixth wide receiver on the depth chart, number five and best. Aiken has always been primarily on the team for his special teams abilities. So with those two thoughts in mind, we said Slater would be the more logical choice. Slater really isn't that much worse as a wide receiver and he's probably a better or at least a much more versatile special teams player. Slater has also been known to play safety in an emergency. Slater is always the first man down on the punt coverage team, so quickly in fact that he's taken some stupid penalties by hitting the punter returner while he is trying to make a fair catch. The most important thing however is that he gets down there quick enough to force a punt returner to indeed make that fair catch with no ability to potentially have a big return. We can't take credit for calling out this one out exactly however because we actually thought Aikens roster spot might go to Sergio brown initially because of the uncertainty of McGowens injury. We had no idea the severity of McGowen's injury and that he would be placed on injured reserve.*

Tight end (3): Alge Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Offensive line (9): Matt Light, Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Sebastian Vollmer, Mark LeVoir, Ryan Wendell, Nick Kaczur, Quinn Ojinnaka (suspended for first game), Steven Maneri

*With the backup Tackle position being a bit thin, as Kaczur had to initially move to left guard before having back surgey to cover for the absent Logan Mankins, the Patriots traded for T Quinn Ojinnaka from Atlanta. Even that appeared not to be enough to satiate the lack or depth and worry as the Patriots claimed Steven Manari from the Houston Texans cut downs. Maneri played both T and TE at Temple and adds another big versatile body to the Patriots roster. You can imagine the flexible ways in which the Patriots may be able to use him if he comes along. The claim on Maneri was the roster spot that pushed 2nd year LB Tyrone McKenzie off the team, at least from now.*

DEFENSE

Defensive line (7): Vince Wilfork, Gerard Warren, Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, Ron Brace, Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love

Outside linebacker (4): Tully Banta-Cain, Jermaine Cunningham, Marques Murrell, Rob Ninkovich

*As far as the outside linebackers, we left Burgess on the 53 man roster but gutlessly had numerous discussions hoping and telling everyone that would listen that we're really hoped they would cut him. The patriots backed themselves into a corner by letting Jason Taylor lead them along by the nose until it was too late in time to do anything proactively to fill the pass rush need that was required last year. The void left by Jason Taylor brushing off Patriots pursuits at the last moment caused the need for the panic move to trade and overpay for Burgess. Burgess never lived up to the trade value given last season regardless of the praise that Belichick heaped on him in one press conference. Belichik never embarrasses his players and often gives them praise or comes to there defense when needed. Having your players deal with a lack of confidence is counter productive and not what you need even if criticism is warrented. Depends on the player make-up.You often have to look at Belichiks comments with a jaded eye and read between the lines, depending on the scenario. When you look at following: how we acquired and why we acquired Burgess in the 1st place, his lack of production last season, the fact that he failed to show up to training camp this season, and followed that all up with an inept showing in the preseason this year, is it really any wonder he was released.*

Inside linebacker (5): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Tracy White, Dane Fletcher

*While we certainly did not have Alexander on our 53 man roster we also did not have his replacement, Tracy White, either. Gotta love upgrades. Fletcher was our very last cut and did not want to but did not have a spot as we had given the nod to McKenzie given that we had left Burgess on the 53. Glad to have him and hope we get a chance to see him get some reps getting after the passer, situationally. Fletcher beats out McKenzie based on his versatility to play OLB and more special teams. It should be interesting to see if McKenzie clears being cut if the Patriots bring him back to the practice squad. We would assume so but you never know.*

Cornerback (5): Darius Butler, Devin McCourty, Jonathan Wilhite, Terrence Wheatley, Kyle Arrington

Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, Patrick Chung, James Sanders, Jarrad Page

*We knew McGowen was hurt but did not see the IR coming. The Patriots traded for Jarrad Page from KC who was a disgruntled RFA, to fill the void. Page had been tendered as a 2nd round level so the feeling is he must be decent which is how we felt about McGowen. Here's to hoping he is an upgrade. We wish him well.*

SPECIAL TEAMS

Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Jake Ingram

2010 Partriots Practice Squad?

2010-09-04T22:05:00.001-04:00

These are basically the players released in the last batch that have practice squad eligibility. In no particular order.

Ted Larsen
Thomas Welch
Buddy Farnham
Thomas Clayton
Darnell Jenkins
George Bussey
Rich Ohrnberger
Sergio Brown

We actually do not really believe this will be the final practice squad because we do not believe the Patriots are finished trying to improve this team. There are a whole lot of players that just got released by others teams. No doubt some of them may be able to help the Patriots somewhere on their roster so we'll see.

2010 Patriots Roster We Would Like To See

2010-09-03T23:47:00.004-04:00

Time to take our very own look at the 2010 Patriots 53 man roster based ONLY on the current set of rostered players. We actually hope and believe they will have players on the roster not currently with the team currently. They need some help.

Most everyone tries to predict what the Patriots will do. We have no idea so we are instead saying what we would like to see based on the limited amount of playing time we see them in preseason games. That also means we do not see daily work ethic, intelligence in the class and film room etc. Vary limited sample of information to make decisions on as an outsider. Anyone who has ever coach knows you make your real evaluations from daily practices.

Let's have at it.

QB: Brady, Hoyer (2)

* This is a no-brainer and needs no explanation. We'll just reassert that we have said we liked the Hoyer pick up as a UDFA and were surprised that he went undrafted and that assertion appears to be well founded thus far.*

RB: Maroney, Faulk, Taylor, Morris, BJGE (4)

*We've stated multiple times previously that we feel the 3rd TE and 5th FB/RB position are interchangeable towards the 53 man roster. In the past when the Patriots carried 5 RB's they only carried 2 TE's. This year we expect them to carry 3 TE's reducing the number of spots on the roster for RB's. We are carrying BJGE here for one game trying to work a trade for "A" running back someone might be calling about due to having an additional roster spot for one week while Quinn Ojinakka serves his one game suspension.*

WR: Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Aiken, Price (6)

*We think someone can play Aikens' spot on special teams like a Sergio Brown and if you need another WR Hernandez plays or can play like a wide receiver in a pinch in his own right anyways. Again, this is what we would do with our limited visibility into the players performances and not what we expect the patriots to do. Price is still so very raw but can not imagine him ever making it through to PS. From what we've seen in preseason we would rather have Jenkins over Price but not sure how much we can take from that. Price cost a valuable draft pick and also supposedly had a good training camp. He'll flash occasionally.*

TE: Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez (3)

*Another no-brainer here needing no explanation.*

OL: Light, Koppen, Neal, Vollmer, Connolly, Ohrnberger, Levoir, Wendell, Ojinnaka (9)

* The usual suspects of incumbents as we did not see anyone beating out the previous set of backups for a roster spot. We would not be surprised to see them claim someone off waivers in this area however. We don't really have an opinion on ojinaka yet but since they traded for him, even if compensation is conditional we'll throw him in the mix. If Kaczur not IR'd we would expect Orhnberger to get cut. Levoir and Vollmer can play tackle on either side and have NFL game experience doing so. The interior guys all have position flexibility at both guard and center.*

DL: Wilfork, Brace, Wright, G. Warren, Pryor, Deaderick, Love (7)

* The once arguably best DL in the NFL is reduced to this crew. Far have the mighty fallen. With the exception of the BB comment about Lewis helping this team this year we never thought he would have made the roster. Turns out our eyes weren't fooling us. Our hope is that Brace steps up to take the starting job from Wright so wright can focus on what he does best as a situational pass rusher without getting worn down by playing every down. We felt Deaderick and Love did solid jobs as rookies considering where they were acquired.*

ILB: Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, McKenzie (4)

* Unbelievably young crew here. Lots of growing pains this year on D with our youth. Hopefully they all stay healthy and just soak up all the experience and improve as the season rolls on. We wish we knew what Cunningham could do at OLB as we are tempted to wack one of the OLB's in favor of Fletcher figuring Guyton and Fletcher could both play role/spot OLB when/if needed. They can't be much worse at setting the edge then some of the current OLB's can they?*

OLB: Banta-Cain, Cunningham, Ninkovich, Burgess, Murrell (5)

*Oh Boy add this average unit, no idea about Cunningham yet, to the DL group and its clear to see why we can have struggles on D at times. None of them do a great job setting the edge and none of them are great pass rushers. Yes I am including TBC in that statement.The Patriots didn't have the toughest schedule last year and almost all of TBC's pressures and sacks came against offensive line units ranked at the bottom of the league in pass protection. UPDATE: After going back over some film we are keeping Murrell and going to have to part ways with woods. Pats need all the help they can get as possible pass rush and Murrell offers more than Woods it would seem.*

DB: McCourty, Butler, Wheatley, Wilhite, Arrington (5)

* We hope they have good study habits cause they are going to school and gonna be getting tested hard and often this season. Bodden's injury really hurts. There's no substitution for experience. People say it opened a roster spot for Wheatley and it might be true but we always felt Wheatley was one of the better cover corners on the team. He just is so darn fragile and can not stay on the field. Sigh. Whilhite is what he is. Arrington was said to have had a nice training camp at CB showing he was more than just a special teams demon.*

S: Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan, Brown (5)

*Solid. MeGowen can play reckless and like a dummy at times but overall the unit is pretty solid. We do wish they would use better tackling technique however and forget about the big blow up hit trying to make the highlight reel. For everyone you make you bounce and spin off 5 others allowing another 15 YAC. Just make the damn sure tackle please!*

ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Ingram, (3)

* The final group of no-brainers. No competition for either Ghost or Mesko and although there was some light reports of a few players taking some reps at long snapping we do not see anyone unseating Ingram.*

Reserve/IR: Mankins???, Ty Warren, Kaczur???, Weston, Bodden, Barrett, Lockett, Richard

*The Patriots already have 6 players on IR to start the 2010 season and Nick Kaczur could be the nest to join the ranks.*

Practice Squad Possibilities: Larsen, Welch, Fletcher, Farnham, Clayton, Jenkins, Bussey, DL

2nd Half Special Teams Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-03T00:14:00.002-04:00

2nd Half Special Teams Plays...

Patriots 4th Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T18:59:00.002-04:00

4th Qtr. Defensive Plays...

Patriots 4th Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T18:56:00.002-04:00

4th Qtr. Offensive Plays...

Patriots 3rd Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T18:52:00.002-04:00

3rd Qtr. Defensive Plays...

Patriots 3rd Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T17:32:00.002-04:00

3rd Qtr. Offensive Plays...

1st Half Special Teams Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T16:17:00.003-04:00

1st Half Special Teams Plays...

Patriots 2nd Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T12:51:00.002-04:00

2nd Qtr. Defensive Plays...

Patriots 2nd Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T12:47:00.002-04:00

2nd Qtr. Offensive Plays...

Patriots 1st Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T12:04:00.004-04:00

1st Qtr Defensive Plays...

Patriots 1st Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Falcons

2010-09-02T11:56:00.004-04:00

1st Qtr. Offensive Plays...

Patriots 4th Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T13:00:00.003-04:00

4th Qtr Defensive plays...

Patriots 4th Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T12:58:00.003-04:00

4th Qtr Offensive plays...

Patriots 3rd Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T12:53:00.003-04:00

3rd Qtr Defensive plays...

Patriots 3rd Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T12:45:00.004-04:00

3rd Qtr Offensive plays...

Patriots 2nd Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T12:03:00.003-04:00

2nd Qtr Defensive plays...

Patriots 2nd Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T12:00:00.003-04:00

2nd Qtr Offensive plays...

Patriots 1st Qtr Defensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T10:23:00.003-04:00

1st Qtr Defensive plays...

Patriots 1st Qtr Offensive Plays of Preseason vs Saints

2010-08-27T07:29:00.006-04:00

1st Qtr Offensive plays...

Brady The Greatest Number 12 Ever... Says SI

2010-08-25T16:28:00.001-04:00

Peter King Tweeted earlier today about a fun SI list they put together naming the greatest NFL players by jersey number.

Upon review of the list, three players with Patriots connections took honors.

Tom Brady took the honors as the best "12" ever (besting Hall of Fame QBs Jim Kelly, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Namath and Roger Staubach, as well as Ken Stabler). Brady gets the top spot for winning in a tougher era. He's 111-34 as a starter, including 14-4 in the postseason and holds the NFL record for the most consecutive wins (10) in the postseason.

Junior Seau was named best "55" of all-time as one of the great linebackers of the 1990s, starring at outside linebacker for the Chargers, Seau was a 12-time Pro Bowl selection and the 1992 NFL Defensive player of the year. He may have only played a short time for the Patriots but we fans think of him as one of our own.

John Hannah's play at guard was other worldly and was the clear choice among those to wear "73". SI once proclaimed him "The Best Offensive Lineman of All Time" on the cover of the Aug. 3, 1981 issue. Hannah played 13 seasons for the Patriots and was named All-Pro 10 straight years from 1976 through 1985.

Pats Fans Say What?

2010-08-24T09:54:00.001-04:00

An ex Patriot is at it again.

Ben Watson made an amazing catch in the Browns preseason game against.

The catch leaving some reactionary fans to ask why couldn't he do that here.

Actually Watson made a lot of tough and nice catches here in New England. The problem was that once in a while out of no where he would drop the easy ones at the most inopportune times.

I also think someone in the org did not have the most confidence in him because he was not often targeted except the year we were short on quality receivers.

Fans should also remember that Ben Watson is not the first TE or WR to leave and make the reactionary of us say "what?".

Does anyone remember trading for Greg Lewis of the Eagles and then releasing him in favor of the now injured Bret Lockett? Watch the catch Greg Lewis makes for the Vikings on his first game after failing to make the Patriots squad?

Searching The Right Finger to Plug The Dike

2010-08-23T11:30:00.006-04:00

The Patriots are apparently still searching for the right piece to fill their offensive line woes. Is the issue simply one of quality depth or is there something more to it?

It was announced today that the Patriots made another move by acquiring Quinn Ojinnaka, a backup guard tackle type, from the Atlanta Falcons for an undisclosed draft pick.

Ojinnaka is a 26-year-old Maryland native who played college football at Syracuse and was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in the 5th round of the 2006 NFL draft. He has 12 career starts for the Falcons and played in 39 games total. 7 starts at left tackle back in 2007 and 5 starts at right guard last year in 2009.

The new Patriot offensive lineman is listed at 6 feet 5 inches, 299 pounds.

Ojinnaka will serve a one-game suspension to start the 2010 season due to violating the NFL personal conduct policy that stemmed from a domestic issue with his wife over facebook. His first game he could possibly appear in, if he makes the team, will be Sept. 19th against the Jets.

To Make room for Ojjinaka, DL Kade Weston is expected to waived/injured.

Weston has missed some time in training camp with an undisclosed injury and the apparent hope will be to place him on IR, if he clears waivers. Weston is a 6-5, 315 lbs defensive lineman who was a 7th round pick out of Georgia this past April for the Patriots. He had 78 career tackles and four sacks in his collegiate career with the Bulldogs, with his finest season coming as a senior when he started nine games and finished with 28 tackles and two sacks.

Anyone smelling Broncos payback yet for New England signing their injured Safety off of waivers?

Bringing in Ojinnaka makes this the third offensive lineman that's been brought in but only the first to be traded for. The previous two were free agents; the first being veteran Eric Ghiaciuc, a 6-foot-4-inch, 303-pound lineman, who is in his fifth NFL season after playing most of his career with the Bengals, and undrafted free agent Brian Simmons, a 6-4, 318-pound rookie out of Oklahoma.

Certainly makes one think Dante is still searching for that right finger to plug the dike, metaphorically speaking.

Will Pats 2010 D Give up Fewer Points?

2010-08-19T17:38:00.003-04:00

The New England Patriots gave up a total of 285 defensive points during the 2009 regular season according to ESPN stats.

The question for your 2010 New England Patriots becomes, How many points per game do they allow?

The Patriots have averaged giving up roughly 17.77 points per game through out the past decade.

The following table shows the yearly Regular season points per game statistics.

YEAR	PTS/G	RK
2009	17.8	5th
2008	19.3	8th
2007	17.1	4th
2006	14.8	2nd
2005	21.1	17th
2004	16.3	2nd
2003	14.9	1st
2002	21.6	17th
2001	17	3rd

Taking a quick look at the rankings over the past decade one can easily see that very few teams have averaged giving up fewer points per game than the Patriots. Upon a deeper look even fewer franchises have been able to sustain a fewer points per game allowance than the Patriots over a sustained number of years.

ONLY the Steelers and Ravens have managed to do it at certain spans of time in the past decade.

Achieving a points per game allowance of under 17 points is not an easy task, evidenced by looking at the statistical numbers over the last decade.

So the question remains. Will the 2010 Patriots defenders give up more or fewer points than their 2009 brethren? What's your over / under on 285 points?

Before answering that question here are some things to keep in mind.

We have a tougher schedule, on paper, in 2010.

We have some unknowns and questions on D but aslo have some high "Hopes" for some youngsters. 2nd year and rooks alike.

Another unknown is the defensive coordinator. Belichick has said he would be more involved with the defense this season but I am assuming that's more during the game planning stages. It has been very obvious that Matt Patricia, last years linebackers coach, has been wearing the headset so far during preseason and calling the defensive plays. Just how well he does could determine the over/under.

Even more importantly. The 2009 New England Patriots may not have been an elite team but at least they remained relatively healthy throughout the entire 2009 season. That fact underscores to me just how poorly they really played last season with the majority of their starters playing all season long. It, in fact, may have been the season with the single fewest Patriots players placed on season ending injury reserve in the decade. I am sure it was close if it wasn't the fewest.

You might be thinking/hoping that the 2010 Patriots offense will help the 2010 defense by returning to its 2007 form. I'm not sure I see that fully happening for reasons I'll explain in my next post.

Pay The Man?

2010-08-11T22:19:00.003-04:00

Pro Football Focus wrote an article recently focused on Logan Mankins worth while using their valuable statistical analysis. We here at PFP, while big fans of PFF, have a different opinion on PFF's verdict.

As far as Mankins goes, they gave the Verdict from their own point of view not taking into account the Patriots organizational philosophy. It's just their opinion and so gave a verdict of "Pay The Man".

A lot has been made of what was supposedly promised and later offered to Logan Mankins by the New England Patriots. None of us, however, have any idea what was "really" promised OR what was offered. Nothing but speculation and rumors. It should also be no secret to anyone who's ever gone through a contract negotiation that people often hear what they want to hear leading up to and during the negotiation process.

The fact of the matter is simple. Just because one organization, the Saints in this case, wants to OVER reward one of its players at a particular position does not mean the Patriots have to follow suit. Nor does it "have" to mean the market for the position has now been reset because "one" team has decided to over pay even if subsequent player agents will most likely try to spin and sell it that way.

The Patriots work within the predefined restrictions they set forth in their own organization. They supposedly set a value or value range by position of what that position is worth and then most likely adjust those pay scales each year based on the change in the salary cap. They stretch those set predefined restrictions for special players/cases without going so far as to set a ridiculous new precedent.

The speculation and rumors indicate that the Patriots did just that for Mankins by offering him a contract extension that would have made him one of the top paid guards in the league but he was still not happy.

Verdict: Be patient, wait and see how everything unfolds as it is still early.

updated:

Adam Schein weighs in...Says Mankins out of his mind!

3 Days - 6 Practices - 1 Recap

2010-08-01T10:29:00.004-04:00

Your 2010 New England Patriots have had 6 training camp practices so far.

Here are the things you should know.

Logan Mankins is still a holdout.
Shawn Crable was released.
Welker is Currently on the active PUP. As I am writing this he was just activated from the PUP list upon passing his physical.
Ron Brace has been on active PUP.
Derick Burgess is MIA and considering retirement.
David Patten has retired.
The first 4 practices were considered high paced and spirited with some hard hitting. The morning practice of day 3 was simply a walk through in shorts. The evening practice on day 3 was back in pads but reported as modest hitting.

Other notable players dealing with minor injuries...
Nick Kaczur, Mathew Slater, Bret Lockett, Ty Warren

The following are my perceptions from reading the many media sources covering patriots training camp thus far.

Our assertion all of last year of blaming more on the offense than the Defense seems to be on the mark as all of the practices so far have focused, at some point, on red-zone and goal line work. So far in the early stages the defense has had the upper hand so I am not sure why all the so called experts keep worrying more about the defense then the offense. The defense will not be great but good enough if the Offense doesn't puke all over itself like it did in too many games last year. Even Brady spoke about the importance of scoring TD's and not kicking field goals in the red zone yesterday on the moving the chains show on Sirius radio.

Special Teams

The top choices for kick off returners appear to be Tate, Edelman, Price/McCourtey, and Slater.
The front lines on KO returns and on KO coverage have been varied with some of the usual suspects.
Gostkowski has looked in mid season forming showing consistency each day.
Zoltan Mesko has been showing improving consistency each day.

The Defense

No one has written a word about Wilhite or Wheatley and it drives us crazy how they focus in on certain players only.
Devin McCourtey is already grouped with Bodden and Butler in public opinion as a rookie. So much for the numb-skulls crying about how the Patriots wasted a first round pick on a special teams player. Yeah I am talking about the media talking heads as well.
Chung is clearly being given every opportunity to win the starting role opposite Brandon Meriweather but there is a consistent solid rotation and job being done by James Sanders and Brandon McGowen as well.
With the release of Crable and possible retirement of Burgess the patriots already put in a claim on one released DE/OLB type, Alex Hall, but he was awarded to the Giants. They had a need and now have an even greater need. Be sure there will be movement here in the coming weeks.
Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, and Cunningham appear to be the top three OLB's in camp with the patriots slowly attempting to give Cunningham an opportunity to win a starting job.
All the top 4 ILB's appear to be looking good and making plays. Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, and Spikes.
Surprise, Dane Fletcher is currently positioned at ILB and not OLB where most though he would be.
The defensive front three is still a revolving work in progress. Ty Warren has been nicked up. The RDE spot vacated by the trade of Seymour is "still" a question mark with Gerrard Warren, Mike Wright, and Myron Pryor seemingly fighting for the job early on.

The Offense

Brady looks good and also healthy. Brian Hoyer continues to be solid. Even Zac has apparently been improving every practice while still making rookie mistakes.
Maroney is still the #1. Faulk is exactly and amazingly still the same great player in his role. Haven't gotten much feel for the rest. A few reports suggesting F Taylor and BJGE have gotten off to a lil bit of a slow start so far.
People are excited about the TE's. Now whether the Offense will use them is another story but all three are showing very soft and sure hands. All three also fill different roles with Crumpler and Gronkowski's roles being the most similar.
Nick Kaczur is the obvious choice and preference to replace the hold out Mankins at left guard but he hurt his back and has been absent from practices himself so Dan Connolly has been elevated into the starting position. The feel i get for the next two interior linemen would appear to be Rich Ohrnberger and Ted Larsen.
With Mankins out, Neal is clearly the best lineman on the team.
Matt Light and Sea-bass have looked very solid but going up against the likes of TBC and Ninkovich doesn't really tell us anything.
It appears Brady has plenty of weapons this year at WR. We know what Moss and Welker do. Edelman continues to get even better. Tate has made the big year two leap it seems and even Taylor Price has been often mentioned. Folks seem to be a bit less thrilled with Holt but it is just the 1st few days and its training camp and not real game action. People might also just have set unrealistic expectations for Holt at his age and it being his 1st time in the patriots system. It's also been said that even the other guys like Farnham and Jenkins do not exactly look out of place.

Looking Back At The 2010 NFL Draft Position Strengths

2010-04-29T11:03:00.006-04:00

Going into the 2010 NFL Draft the following position groups were graded on a scale of 1-10 by the reputable Rick Gosselin.

Offensive line - 5

** Offensive tackle is strong at the top of the draft, with as many as four going in the Top 20. But it thins dramatically in the mid-to-later rounds. This also is the worst interior offensive line board (guards and centers) I've seen in the last 10 years. **

The Patriots were said to be in love with Maurkice Pouncy by unnamed sources. Pouncy went early before the Patriots pick at #22. Taking into account the Rick Gosselin comments from above it is easy to see why they did not bother to take a C or G until they took a flyer on Ted Larsen at the end of the 6th round. A Raw project at Center who is athletic but limited experience at the center position. He was converted from the Defensive line to play center at North Carolina State. Belichick made comments after the draft the Patriots had taken players in the past with a similar grade as Larsen as high as the fourth round in other years. Following the same trend, they took OT Thomas Welch at the top of the 7th round. Belichick had made a comment post draft that he was surprised to see both Larsen and Welch still on the board at the time of picking them. This suprise was undoubtedly the impetus for trading up to the top of the 7th round to select Welch.

Tight Ends - 9

** Tight end is the deepest position on the offensive side of the ball with quality pass catchers into the fifth round and blockers into the seventh. **

Even though the Patriots had signed Alge Crumpler prior to the draft, it was always our feeling that the Patriots would draft two tight ends in this draft and that the 1st selection would occur in one of their 1st two picks. While it is true the Patriots have not historically featured the tight end in their offense, and that may continue to be the case, the fact remained that they only had an aging blocker at the TE position with any NFL game experience. The other two rostered tight ends were both practice squad players who have yet to see the field during a regular season NFL game. The strength and depth of the 2010 tight end draft class was considered one the the best in the past decade so it was no surprise to see the Patriots trade up to select tight end Rob Gronkowski early in the 2nd round. Gronkowski missed the 2009 season after back surgery to fix a disc problem. Most considered him a lock 1st round prospect had it not been for his injury and a few even argued he would have been considered the #1 tight end in the draft. Gronkowski is considered the most complete tight end to come out of the draft as he is an able and willing aggressive in line blocker in addition to his down field pass catching abilities. Once the Patriots medical staff gave Belichick the green light on Gronkowski he did not hesitate to pull the trigger. The Patriots also suffered some good fortune when Aaron Hernandez fell in their lap in the 4th round. Both Hernandez and Gronkowski were consistently rated in the top three at the tight end position by most draft-niks and talent evaluators. Hernandez started to slide in the weeks leading up to the draft because he injured himself working out and was unable to perform at the NFL combine and even more so because of an initially undisclosed off-field issue. Post draft it is to be believed that the off-field issue in question was a failed drug test and suspension he had suffered while at the university of Florida. To our knowledge, however, he did pass the drug test administered at the NFL combine. The real remaining question on Hernandez will be how will the Patriots best make use of him? We have seen two opinions on his blocking abilities given. One is that he has none. The second is that he can and is a willing blocker and simply was never asked to. Hernandez would appear to fit the role of H-back more than traditional tight end. The Patriots have drafted players that fit that role in the past but failed to find a way to effectively get them involved in the offense. Will Hernandez suffer the same fate or will the Patriots finally find a way to make use of their new offensive weapon.

Cornerbacks - 7

** The NFL has evolved into a pass-dominated league, but there's no rush to draft the elite cornerbacks. There hasn't been a corner drafted in the top 10 since 2005. This is one of the slower cornerback classes. **

Going into the draft most people considered the OLB pass rush to be one of their top two needs in the draft. Many suspected the Patriots would address this need/hole in the 1st round with their 1st pick in the 2010 NFL draft. Initially we felt they would address the hole left by Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green. As the process drew closer to draft day however, we saw a momentum shift. The cornerback class which was initially considered weak became strong, especially at the top, and many experts were predicting as many as 4 cornerbacks going in the first round. In addition to this momentum, research into what type of numerical grade the cornerbacks that would be available the the patriots in the late first round would have revealed that a cornerback drafted here would have a high probability of being better that at least three of the existing rostered cornerbacks the Patriots already had. From that point on we felt that if a player the Patriots coveted did not slip through and fall to them that the Patriots would take a cornerback. The Patriots selected Devin McCourty to the chagrin of many of the less informed Patriot fans. McCourty was listed anywhere from the #2-#4 rated cornerback by most draft-niks and talent evaluators. What we believe is throwing fans off is the fact that when people talk about McCourty they often spout off about his special teams prowess. What fans need to realize is that just because someone speaks glowingly about his special teams prowess does not minimize or mean any sort of lack in coverage skills as a true starting cornerback. As we mentioned earlier, his high rating is amongst all cornerbacks in the role of playing cornerback and not that of a special-teamer. He has good size, is physical and tough. He was the NCAA leader in tackles among cornerbacks. You just may even see him starting at cornerback by seasons end.

Wide Receivers - 8

** Mike Wallace (Steelers) was a fourth-round pick in 2009, Pierre Garcon a sixth in 2008, Steve Breaston a fifth in 2007 and Marques Colston a seventh in 2006. You can find quality receivers in any round of any draft. The 2010 draft is no different.**

We were a bit surprised to see an 8 given by Gosselin to the 2010 wide receiver class. Our gut feeling is that the momentum for the class was a little bit less positive. The Patriots looked like they were in a perfect spot to have one of the wide receivers, that had publicly been associated with them having interest in, fall in their lap. Unfortunately there was a small run on wide receivers that started just a handful of picks prior to their turn at the end of the 3rd round. The Patriots selected Taylor Price from Ohio. In a post draft selection interview with the media it was reveled by Price that the Patriots were the only team to have worked him out privately. We find that a bit odd and uninspiring. It is also a bother to us that the first thing anyone brings up about Price is his elite speed as it brings back unfavorable memories of what people spoke of when talking about Bethal Johnson. While his straight line speed was impressive and he was a top perform in the 40 at the combine, Price did not fare as well in the 3-cone or 20-yd short shuttle times. On the positive side of things is that Price supposedly played in a run first offense and that offensive system did not afford him the same opportunities as wide receivers in more pass happy offensive systems yet he still managed to catch 50+ balls for two consecutive seasons. Time will show if he can adapt to and pick up the complexities of the Patriots offensive system. Perhaps even more impressive is the wide receiver the Patriots signed as an undrafted free agent, Bryan Anderson. He has impressive size at 6-5 and 215lbs and production catching 60+ balls for all 4 of his college years as a starter. He has an impressive resume, including setting a NCAA record 54 consecutive games with a reception, and we feels he has a legitimate chance to make the opening day roster if he can assimilate the known to be very complex Patriots offensive system. Last but not least of note is an interesting tryout for WR Andrew Brewer of Northwestern. He's another big target but fairly inexperienced at the WR position as he's a another converted QB. In only his 2nd full season playing the position at Northwestern he amassed some impressive receiving numbers. He had 57 receptions for 927 yrds with a 16.2 yrd avg. and 9 touchdowns. Certainly and intriguing prospect and we wish him well in his tryout considering the success the Patriots have had with at least one of their other QB-WR converts.

Running Backs - 3

** There have been three running backs or fewer in the first round of seven of the last 10 drafts, and 2010 should continue that trend. Of the three top backs, two of them fall below the NFL's size standard (under 200 pounds). **

With the 2010 running back class being considered as weak as it was it is no surprise to see that the Patriots went in another direction. They have a full backfield currently under contract for 2011. While it is true that all of their contracts are up in 2011 there are a few things to keep in mind. The Patriots can always opt to extended one or more of them, the Patriots currently have two 1st round picks and 2 second round picks in the 2011 draft, and running backs, in general, are a commodity in the NFL. You can typically get your hands on a veteran free agent running back at some point every year, be it off season or even in season some times. The Patriots most likely felt the need/value was not great enough to draft one in the 1st round and a half and that the running backs available after that were, at best, only as good as what they already had on the roster. The Patriots did bring in a UDFA RB in Pat Paschall. He looks to be competition and ultimately a practice squad player for further development at this point in time.

Safeties - 5

** You can find safeties in every round of every draft, and 2010 is no different. **

The fact that the Patriots have taken two safeties with their 1st picks in two of the past four drafts was probably an indication that they might not go in that direction this year unless one of the top safeties unexpectedly fell to them. Namely Earl Thomas as it was said he could play safety or cornerback. The fact that the returning safety group is solid, coupled with the average rating of 5 given to the 2010 safety draft class most likely led to the Patriots bringing in safety depth from the UDFA pool. Sergio Brown from Notre Dame and Ross Ventrone of Villanova, brother to past Patriot safety, wide receiver, and special team contributor Ray Ventrone.

Defensive Line - 9

** The defensive line is the deepest position on the draft board, particularly at tackle. Two of the five best players in this draft are Suh and McCoy. The last time two tackles went in the top five picks was 1992. **

With the defensive line being the deepest position in the draft we were certainly surprised to see the Patriots wait until the 7th round to address the vacancy left open by the trade of Richard Seymour last season and the departure of Jarvis green during free agency. Other than Jared Odrick, there wasn't really an ideal fit for the typical Patriot 5 technique DE that they prefer. There seemed to be varying opinions as to how well Odrick could play the 5 technique and Alualu went unexpectedly early. Alualu had the bulk but not the length and Wootton and Carrington had the length but not the bulk. When we posed the question to our friends Spencer over at www.draftbreakdown.com and Shawn over at www.draftheadquarters.com about who the best 5 technique fit was for the Patriots back on March 22nd we got a single clear answer. Outside of the players we previously mentioned they said it was Brandon Deaderick. Well about a month later the Patriots did exactly what they had suggested and drafted Deaderick. Perhaps the addition of Damione Lewis and the fact they obviously had a plan in the works to bring in Gerard Warren made the decision of priorities an easy one.

Linebackers - 2

** This is as lean a year for linebackers as the NFL has seen in the last decade. There are some quality pass rushers who fit a 3-4 scheme but the traditional 4-3 backers with the size to play the run are lacking. **

The Patriots have passed on so many varying types of linebackers, playing in various schemes and positions, with various measurables in the past 5 years of drafts that we have absolutely no idea what they look for. The fact that they chose to draft a ILB in the 2nd round out of a linebacker class that ranks as a 2 on the 1-10 scale is baffling enough on it's own. The Patriots first looked past Sergio Kindle early which would have been more of a surprise to us if the issue of him being Narcoleptic and also some saying he has potentially serious knee problems being brought to light during the draft. We had not read anything about either of those preexisting conditions prior to the draft. The Patriots did, however, select Brandon Spikes in the late 2nd round. Most considered it to be a reach as Spikes' draft stock had taken a precipitous fall in the weeks leading up to the draft. Many scouts had questioned Spikes range since the 2009 draft season and those questions seemed to be confirmed when Spikes ran a 5.02 and 5.08 40 yard dash at the 2010 Florida pro day. Various excuses have been floated. Mainly that Spikes was battling an injured hammy or quad or something of that nature. Generally speaking, you do not find many potential or actual starting ILB's in the NFL these days who only run a 5.02 40 yard dash. In defense of Spikes' timed 40 you do not usually want your ILB running 40 yards to make a play. If he does, something probably went wrong. Also in Brandon's defense are the following two facts; one is that he timed out very well in the 3-cone drill at the combine which tests short area change of direction quickness and that seems a more appropriate representation of what a ILB might be doing between the tackles than the 40 yard dash. Spikes was listed among the top performers in that category. The 2nd point in defense of Brandon Spikes as a 2nd round draft pick despite his 40 time is that all sources seem to suggest the kid knows exactly what he is doing in his role showing great football instincts. If that is true that would certainly make up for any speed short-comings. I mean how many times did we see Seau shoot a cap and make a tackle for loss in his finals years here in New England? Many more than we saw either Mayo or Guyton do it and no one will convince us that Seau was as fast or faster than either of those two young speedsters. That's just pure linebacker instincts making up for lack of youthful speed. Here at PFP our big question has always been and still remains, why did his tackle production go down year over year from his sophomore year on? Brandon had a 131 total tackles in 2007. That number fell off to the much smaller figure of 87 total tackles in 2008. In 2009 his production spiraled downward ever more with a minimal 52 total tackles. Many varied theories have been levied at us in defense of that downward pattern but none make a whole lot of factual sense to us. One was that teams game planned around him. Another claimed he wasn't really on the field as much because the gators were always way ahead the past 2 seasons and their opponents were forced to almost pass exclusively to try and catch up. A third and final reasons was that he simply was fighting through a season riddled with injuries. Let's start with the last one. If the primary reason the Patriots were willing to overlook some possible speed limitations was because of the toughness and physicality to Spikes game then doesn't the idea of him fighting through injuries fly in the face of that theory? To us that would seem to lend itself more to durability issues. In the end we wish him the best and it should make for great competition between Guyton, McKenzie, and Spikes.

Best Remaining Speed Rushers

2010-04-24T09:35:00.006-04:00

Taking a look at some of the top remaining speed rushers in the draft has two players with both speed and production available to the Patriots. One has the length, Adrian Tracy, but both would seem to not match the size requirement based on Patriots draft history for the position. Here's to hoping they make an exception this year. It is hard to ignore Eric Norwood's production while playing against the SEC competition.

Player Name	Hght	Wght	Arms	40 Time	10 yd	20 yd	3 cone	20 yd ss	Sacks	Solo	Asst	Ints	yrs
Sergio Kindle	6-3	250	33.25	4.65	1.65	2.69	7.26	4.53	16	102	46	0	4
Everson Griffin	6-3	273	32.625	4.65	1.61	2.67	7.25	4.36	16	46	36	0	3
Carlos Dunlap	6-6	277	34.625	4.68	1.6	2.65	7.21	4.61	19	50	27	0	3
Ricky Sapp	6-4	252	34.5	4.65	1.6	2.62	7.29	4.41	16	63	76	0	4
Koa Misi	6-3	251	32.5	4.75	1.64	2.76	7.07	4.21	10	90	108	0	4
Daniel Te'O	6-3	263	33.75	4.73	1.61	2.69	6.91	4.18	27	113	78	0	4
Lindsey Witten	6-4	250	35	4.7	1.58	2.68	7.32	4.62	21	60	63	1	4
George Johnson	6-5	268	x	4.78	1.65	2.76	6.95	4.57	12	59	71	2	4
AJ Edds	6-4	246	32.75	4.62	1.6	2.64	7.19	4.28	2	71	148	7	4
Kevin Basped	6-4	258	34.75	4.75	1.67	2.73	7.54	4.88	22	69	62	0	3
Adrian Tracy	6-3	248	33.5	4.76	1.6	2.68	7.08	4.34	31	90	60	0	3
James Ruffin	6-4	264	x	4.76	1.59	2.69	7.2	4.56	7	15	14	0	4
Chris McCoy	6-3	251	x	4.7	1.64	2.72	7.13	4.51	12	76	36	0	4
Brandon Graham	6-1	268	32.25	4.72	1.61	2.69	x	x	28	86	52	0	4
Jerry Hughes	6-2	255	33	4.65	1.63	2.63	6.99	4.15	28	82	60	3	4
Eric Norwood	6-1	245	33.375	4.71	1.58	2.69	7.08	4.23	29	166	88	2	4
Thaddeus Gibson	6-2	243	33	4.68	1.61	2.68	6.84	4.27	10	49	33	1	3
Jason Worilds	6-1	254	32.875	4.57	1.56	2.57	6.95	4.2	14	57	68	0	3
Arthur Moats	6-0	246	33.75	4.64	1.58	2.63	7.22	4.37	6	13	21	0	3
Dexter Davis	6-1	244	33	4.62	1.55	2.61	7.08	4.3	30	86	47	1	4

Day 3 Picks

2010-04-24T07:32:00.006-04:00

The remaining picks

Round 4, Pick 15 (113) (From 49ers through Broncos)

Round 5, Pick 19 (150) (From Texans)

Round 6, Pick 36 (205) (Compensatory selection)

Round 7, Pick 22 (229)

Round 7, Pick 24 (231) (From Eagles through Broncos)

Round 7, Pick 40 (247) (Compensatory selection)

Round 7, Pick 41 (248) (Compensatory selection)

Round 7, Pick 43 (250) (Compensatory selection)

Some of The Best Available Players Remaining

Offense:

Bruce Campbell OT
Jonathan Dwyer RB
Aaron Hernandez TE
Mardy Gilyard WR
Dennis Pitta TE
Joe McKnight RB
James Starks RB
Dorin Dickerson FB/TE
Lonyae Miller RB
Riley Cooper WR
Blair White WR
Marcus Easley WR
Kyle Calloway OT
Tony Washington OT

Defense:

Ricky Sapp OLB
AJ Edds OLB/ILB
Everson Griffen OLB
Eric Norwood OLB
Cam Thomas DE
Corey Wootton DE/OLB
Al Woods DE
Austen Lane OLB
Lindsey Witten OLB
Reshad Jones S
Thaddeus Gibson OLB
Dominque Franks CB
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah CB
Geno Atkins DE

A Look At The Current Remaining Patriots Draft Board

2010-04-23T17:02:00.001-04:00

Round 1, Pick 27 (27) (From Cowboys) Devin McCourty CB 5′11″ 193 Rutgers

Round 2, Pick 12 (42) (From Jaguars) Rob Gronkowski TE 6'6" 264 Arizona

Round 2, Pick 21 (53) Jermaine Cunningham OLB 6'3" 266 Florida
Round 2, Pick 30 (62) Brandon Spikes ILB 6'3" 249 Florida

Round 3, Pick 26 (90) (From Cowboys) Taylor Price 6'0" 204 Ohio

Round 4, Pick 15 (113) (From 49ers through Broncos)
Round 5, Pick 19 (150) (From Texans)

Round 6, Pick 36 (205) (Compensatory selection)

Round 7, Pick 22 (229)

Round 7, Pick 24 (231) (From Eagles through Broncos)

Round 7, Pick 40 (247) (Compensatory selection)

Round 7, Pick 41 (248) (Compensatory selection)

Round 7, Pick 43 (250) (Compensatory selection)

Possible Day 2 Pool of Players For The Patriots

2010-04-23T14:02:00.003-04:00

Tier1

Golden Tate WR

Rob Gronkowski (back?) TE

Sergio Kindle (narcoleptic, knee?) OLB

Nate Allen S

Charles Brown OT

Reshad Jones S

Arrelious Benn WR

Carlos Dunlap DE/OLB

Chad Jones S

Toby Gerhart RB

Cory Wooton DE/OLB

Brian Price DE

Daryl Washington ILB

Morgan Burnett S

Alex Carrington DE

Ricky Sapp OLB

Tier2

Cam Thomas DE

Thaddeus Gibson OLB

Dexter McCluster WR/RB

Jon Asamoah OG

Eric Norwood OLB

Koa Misi OLB/ILB

John Jerry OG

Austen Lane OLB

Damian Williams WR

Sean Lee ILB

Rodger Saffold OG/OT

Tier3

Donald Butler ILB

Eric Decker WR

Aaron Hernandez TE

Montario Hardesty RB

Vladimir Ducasse OG

Jimmy Graham TE

Ben Tate RB

Jordan Shipley WR

Dennis Pitta TE

Jared Veldheer OT

Jason Worlids OLB

Linval Joseph DE

Tier4

Andre Roberts WR

Torrell Troup DE?

Mardy Gilyard WR

Brandon Spikes ILB

Al Woods DE

Emmanuel Sanders WR

Joe McKnight RB

Riley Cooper WR

Blair White WR

Marcus Easley WR

Tony Moeaki TE

James Starks RB

Lindsey Witten OLB

Comparaing Draft Player Grades Across Years

2010-04-23T12:34:00.003-04:00

By no means are the following grades exact or absolute as no one is perfect and certainly not our friends over at Draft Ace either. Using Draft Ace grades, if available, I put together some food for thought comparing our young players to some of this drafts crop at various positions. I can only compare our young recent draft picks as Draft Ace has not been around long enough to have the historical grades on our older players. It is not intended be be some sort of exact grading example, ONLY guidelines for generating thought. We have long wished that all the Draft nicks actually gave numerical grades for doing this exact exercise. Thanks to Draft Ace for giving numerical grades for the enthusiasts out there and hope they continue doing it.

CB Grade

Leigh Bodden UDFA

Darius Butler 89

Terrence Wheatley 77

Jonathan Wilhite 52

Devin McCourtey 91

Kyle Wilson 91

Patrick Robinson 89

Kareem Jackson 88

Dominque Franks 79

Brandon Ghee 78

Amari Spievey 68

OG Grade

None of the young backups were even on the radar or graded but based on where the patriots took Bussey and Ohrnberger their grades would have been in the 50-60's range.

John Asamoah 82

John Jerry 80

Vladimir Ducasse 77

Marshall Newhouse 67

Zane Beadle 66

OT Grade

Sabastian Vollmer 78

Nick Kaczur NA but 3rd round would be in the 70's

Trent Wiliams 91

Charles Brown 89

Anthony Davis 87

Roger Saffold 78

Jared Veldheer 75

Kyle Calloway 68

Tony Washington 63

Chris Marinelli 55

S Grade

Brandon Meriweather 83

Patrick Chung 82

Earl Thomas 91

Nate Allen 90

Reshad Jones 89

Morgan Burnett 87

Myron Rolle 77

Major Wright 69

Kam Chancelor 64

WR Grade

Julian Edelman NG

Brandon Tate 63

Golden Tate 91

Dmaryius Thomas 90

Arrelious Benn 88

Damian Williams 79

Eric Decker 77
Taylor Price 76

Riley Cooper 74

Blair White 73

Andre Roberts 72

Marcus Easley 71

Freddie Barnes 67

Emmanuel Sanders 57

David Gettis 51

QB Grade

Brian Hoyer 56

Tim Tebow 66

Tony Pike 65

Zac Robinson 54

John Skelton 50

LB's Grade

Jerod Mayo 88

Bruce Davis 86

Tyrone McKenzie 80

Shawn Crable 77

Gary Guyton 67

Marques Murrell 45

Brandon Graham 93

Sean Weatherspoon 92

Sergio Kindle 91

Jerry Hughes 91

Everson Griffin 90

JPP 89

Carlos Dunlap 88

Daryl Washington 87

Ricky Sapp 86

Thaddeus Gibson 84

Eric Norwood 82

Koa Misi 81

Austen Lane 80

Sean Lee 79

Jason Worilds 74

Pat Angerer 74

Lindsey Witten 69

AJ Edds 69

Brandon Spikes 68

Jermaine Cunningham 68

Daniel Te'O 65

Dekota Watson 63

Kevin Basped 57

Arthur Moats 55

Adrian Tracy 54

Chris McCoy 45

Matt Mayberry 45

DT/DE Grade

Ron Brace 88

Myron Pryor NG

Darryl Richard 45

Dan Williams 94

Jared Odrick 93

Corey Wooton 87

Alex Carrington 86

Tyson Alualu 86

Cam Thomas 84

Linval Joseph 73

Torrel Troup 72

Lamarr Houston 70

Al Woods 66

Arthur Jones 62

Geno Atkins 61

Corey Peters 55

Brandon Deaderick 53
Kade Weston 45

We do not feel there are 32 players worth 1st round picks in most years drafts. I also think its statistically not probable to have top 5 QB's every single year and that many times a QB is over drafted.

We also believe that is why the Patriots have many times traded down from the lower first because they did not think the players available were worth a 1st round pick, to them.

Again these are all just our own opinions but we don't believe there are 2 full rounds of 1st round caliber talent in the 2010 NFL draft as some others have suggested in exaggeration.

We would like to point out once again that having the numerical grade is at least one way, based on a lone website opinion , to compare players across positions when you don't have time to check everyones film. It is also the ONLY way to do what we tried to do here in this exercise. Showing you how the player grades compare historically.

If you don't do that then you would never be able to compare draft-able players vs. your own current roster.

How accurate Draft Ace's grades are is not relevant as long as they are consistent in their evaluation year after year. That way you are comparing players at positions using the same consistent criteria.

Going through an exercise like this allows us to not only compare this years draft-able players to each other but to the Patriots current rostered players.

That's why we question sometimes when people suggest drafting certain guys at a position where the Patriots already have rostered players who had a higher grade coming out than the player that is being suggested.

Does it mean they are wrong no absolutely not. Simply that there is cause for questioning the decision and asking why would you do that.

Resurgence of the NFL 3-4 Defensive Scheme

2010-04-13T14:58:00.000-04:00

There are suppose to be 15 teams running the 3-4 Defense this upcoming NFL season. The following is a list of them in order of when they are drafting in the first round.

Redskins
Chiefs
Browns
Bills
Broncos
Dolphins
49ers
Steelers
Patriots
Packers
Ravens
Cardinals
Cowboys
Chargers
Jets

An interesting UDFA type RB prospect - Conte Cuttino

2010-04-12T12:43:00.000-04:00

Conte Cuttino - Stonybrook

3067 Career rushing yards

Pro Day

4.05 SS

6.33 3-cone

4.44 40

40 1/2 vertical

10' 7" braod

17 reps

http://www.contecuttino.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqjGCJOV7QU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWI703kYIHQ

Patriots #2 Pass Blocking Team in Pro Football Focus Analysis

2010-04-12T12:31:00.004-04:00

Here's the summary...

No. 2 New England Patriots Just a hair off the top spot, New England owes a lot more than the Colts to their line for this position. Even when left tackle Matt Light went down with injury, along comes the remarkable Sebastian Vollmer, who plays even better than the veteran. Adding a little further weight to the view he was rather lucky to make the Pro Bowl this year, Tom Brady was ranked mid-table (No. 14) in personal responsibility for pressure, a lot lower than you would expect from a player of his calibre. At the end of the day however, the line did its job well enough that the coaches left in blockers less than most other teams (sixth-least) and were able to maximize Brady's targets.

The Full Article can be read at Pro Football Focus.

Recapping The Belichick Draft Era by Position Priority

2010-04-12T12:22:00.000-04:00

Just to recap the Belichick era of drafting. By round and Position. The Patriots currently hold 4 picks in the Top 53 players in this years 2010 NFL Draft. What's have the Patriots done with picks in the 1st 1 rounds of the draft during the Belichick era? Have a look.

FIRST ROUND

Pos. No. (of Players taken)

DL 3

TE 2

OL 1

LB 1

RB 1

S 1

SECOND ROUND

Pos. No.

CB 3

OL 3

WR 3

DL 2

S 2

10 Payers That Might Get Traded Come Draft Day

2010-04-12T12:04:00.002-04:00

10. Michael Vick, Eagles
With McNabb out of the picture the Eagles aren’t shopping Vick around, but that doesn’t mean they won’t trade him. His value to the Eagles is minimal, since it appears that Kevin Kolb is being handed the starting job. If another team (Bills? Rams? Raiders?) comes along and offers up a trade the Eagles can’t refuse, they’ll pull the trigger.

9. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
The Dolphins seem to have soured on Ronnie Brown. They only placed a 1st-round tender on him (rather than a 1st and 3rd) making it possible for someone to fairly easily sign him if they wished to do so. By no means are they pushing him out the door, but they’re definitely willing to part with the injury-prone 28-year-old before he loses his value altogether.

8. David Garrard, Jaguars
The Jaguars seem to be moving forward with Garrard as their starting quarterback, but that could change on draft day. Jack Del Rio has publicly criticized Garrard this offseason, stating that he doesn’t view him as a quarterback that can lead a team to the Super Bowl. That certainly doesn’t sound promising for Garrard’s future. If the Jaguars land a quarterback early in the draft (Tebow?) then Garrard could be sent packing.

Has Roy Williams played his last game in Dallas?
7. Roy Williams, Cowboys
The Cowboys have given mixed signals about their commitment to Williams. They haven’t tried to trade him yet, to our knowledge, but they haven’t exactly given him a vote of confidence either. They may not be shopping him around, but Jerry Jones isn’t shy about making moves. If the right offer comes along on draft day, he’ll certainly listen.

6. Bryant McKinnie, Vikings
McKinnie is just 30 years old and has plenty of good football left, but the Vikings have reportedly grown tired of some of McKinnie’s off-field actions. He’s another veteran that isn’t being pushed out the door, but could be dealt if the right deal comes along. More and more we’re seeing teams try to move players while they still have value to other clubs in an effort to get something in return. McKinnie could fall into that category.

5. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
Lynch, who turns 24 on draft day, may be the most intriguing player on the trade block right now. With the emergence of Fred Jackson, its possible that the Bills will be willing to move Lynch, who has been nothing but a headache for the organization since they drafted him in 2007. He’s among the most talented running backs in the game, but he’s a handful to control off the field. Despite some character concerns, there will be more than a few teams willing to take Lynch off the Bills hands if they’re interested in moving him. He could be a key piece to the puzzle if they wish to trade into the late 1st round for a shot at Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy.

4. Shaun Rogers, Browns
Mike Holmgren has already overhauled the roster, but he isn’t done yet. Rogers is a difficult player to figure out. When he wants to be, he’s arguably the game’s most dominant nose tackle. But the problem is, no one can seem to figure out how to motivate him. He enjoyed playing for Romeo Crennel in 2008, so a reunion in Kansas City is certainly a possibility of the Chiefs are willing to part with a 2nd or 3rd-round pick.

3. Greg Olsen, Bears
I’m actually shocked that Olsen hasn’t been traded yet. He’s strictly a pass-catching tight end and new Bears offensive coordinator simply doesn’t have room for those players in his offense. Its possible he’ll change things up to accommodate Olsen, but don’t count on it. It seems unlikely that he’ll be wearing a Bears uniform by the end of April.

2. Jared Gaither, Ravens
The Ravens are practically begging someone to take Gaither off their hands and eventually someone will oblige. The Ravens are reportedly not interested in putting up with his lack of effort and poor work ethic, but if he suffers from those issues you’d never know it by his play on the field. He is on the cusp of becoming an elite left tackle and someone could get an absolute steal on draft day.

1. Jason Campbell, Redskins
Shortly after the Redskins traded for McNabb, Jason Campbell stated that he would sign his tender. Not because he’s excited to back up McNabb, but because he needed to sign in order to allow the Redskins to trade him. He won’t be in Washington next season, and its very likely he’ll be gone before the draft is over.

Will The Undersized OLB/DE Finally Grow on Bill Belichick?

2010-04-11T23:00:00.001-04:00

In 2006, only six teams in the NFL lined up in a 3-4 scheme. But four of them qualified for the playoffs, three won division titles, Baltimore led the NFL in defense and San Diego led in sacks. So the pendulum started swinging back from the 4-3 to the 3-4 defensive scheme.

Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City and San Francisco switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in 2009, and Buffalo and Washington will join the parade in 2010.

A 3-4 team has finished No. 1 in the NFL in defense for four consecutive seasons: the Jets in 2009, the Steelers in 2007-08 and the Ravens in 2006. A 3-4 team also has led the NFL in takeaways the last three seasons: Green Bay in 2009, Baltimore in 2008 and San Diego in 2007. The Cowboys led the NFL in sacks in 2008 in their 3-4.

The success of the scheme has driven up the stock of all the undersized college pass rushers because more and more teams are searching for them.

Elvis Dumervil led the league with 17 sacks while rushing from his weakside linebacker spot in the Denver 3-4 last season.

Hughes was a two-time Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year at TCU, Kindle a two-time second-team All-Big 12 selection at Texas.

Jerry Hughes turned in a 4.65 40-yard dash at the combine and Kindle a 4.65. Dumervil (5-11, 252) ran a 4.75 at his combine.

Hughes posted 15 sacks in 2008 and another 11 sacks in 2009.

Kindle posted 10 sacks as a junior at linebacker in 2008 before moving to end in 2009 and collecting 6 more sacks. He's eager to return to linebacker in the NFL.

"That's where I started," Kindle said. "It's a plus for me that I learned how to play defensive end as well in 2009. That makes me a little more versatile."

Potential other beneficiaries in the NFL's downsizing of pass rushers. Clemson's Ricky Sapp (6-3, 252) ran a 4.65 at the combine, Arizona State's Dexter Davis (6-2, 244) a 4.62, James Madison's Arthur Moats (6-0, 246) a 4.64, and Jason Worilds (6-1, 254) a 4.57.

The Best 6 College Football Walk-on's in the 2010 Draft?

2010-04-11T22:29:00.003-04:00

Congrats to these players!

These six players were walk-ons as freshmen. All would earn scholarships and leave a mark in their final college seasons in 2009.

Player	Pos.	School	Comment
Blair White	WR	Michigan State	First in the Big Ten with nine TD receptions
Cody Grimm	OLB	Virginia Tech	Second in the NCAA with seven forced fumbles
Antonio Brown	WR	Central Michigan	Seventh in NCAA with 110 catches
Marcus Easley	WR	Coonecticut	Eighth in the NCAA with an 18.6-yard average per catch
Matt O'Hanlon	S	Nebraska	19th in the NCAA with six interceptions
Josh Hull	LB	Penn State	35th in NCAA with 116 tackles

Patriots Draft Theory 101

2010-04-11T12:51:00.002-04:00

Keep It Simple Stupid

The best way to avoid drafting players you don't really want is to take them off your draft board.

That's the theory, anyhow, used by Bill Belichick in New England.

Belichick typically has 120 or fewer players on his draft board in a given draft year.

Don't be mistaken however, as it has often been reported how meticulous and astute Bill Belichick is at everything including recalling even the finest details of just about every player the Patriots have scouted in a given draft year.

Quoting the Scout

2010-04-10T21:04:00.007-04:00

We've put together some interesting quotes from a scouting source who has worked in the NFL for multiple organizations. We'll continue to add any interesting gems all the way up till draft day. Let's see just how many come to fruition.

"Dez Bryant might drop a little but there is ZERO chance he falls to the 2nd round like Desean Jackson did in 2008"

"Personnel departments know that whiffing on a QB in the top 15 is usually a death sentence... even if you like a guy, there is cold feet"

"great year to be picking late in the 1st round--going to have your choice of a great player or trading back for extra picks"

"I know teams that have Golden Tate in the early 2nd and others that have him in the 4th round..."

"Golden Tate positives-great after the catch, tough, strong, fast enough.. negatives-stiff, struggles vs press, not polished route runner"

In response to IF Harvin had questions about his route running coming out...
"nope, his off field hobbies were the only knock... rare dude"

In response to Bulaga
"awesome RT, middle of the road LT"

In response to Marcus Easley
" lots of buzz... won't get out of 3rd rd"

"If I'm Green Bay, I'd be tempted to take Jahvid Best... His burst in their spread package would be a nightmare for opponents"

In response to Mike Williams
"Wildcard, freaky talent with character issues.. likely in the 3rd rd"

"A few weeks ago I thought that Georgia Tech WR D. Thomas had a chance to go in rd 1... now it's close to a sure thing"

In response to Jordan Shipley
"a few teams love him, 3rd at the latest"

In response to Jordan Shipley and Riley Cooper
"buzz on both.. could see them both in 2nd round"

In response to Matt Tennant
"variety of opinion on him.. some say 2nd, others say 5th. Not a great SR Bowl week"

"This is one of the best TE drafts in a long time. Two guys that teams are buzzing on--Jimmy Graham and Clay Harbor."

In response to Linval Joseph in the 1st
" I think he will likely land in the 2nd."

In response to Giants Draft
"LB, DE and CB will likely be addressed. Defense needs upgrade."

In response to LaRon Landry Vs. Berry
"Eric Berry, much better ball skills and can match up man to man"

"I know one team is very seriously considering Tebow in the 1st round"

Follow Up to the above quote
"I got a text from a scout asking if that team went to the Sr Bowl"

"Trade up targets in this draft: Bradford, Eric Berry, Ryan Mathews, Earl Thomas and finally if Dez Bryant slides"

In Response to C.J. Spiller
"I think he is close to a lock to go in the top 10 right now"

"Haden, Wilson, Jackson and McCourty are all going to go in the 1st"

"Carlos Dunlap could be this years Calais Campbell-talented, questionable motor/instincts... Campbell ended up being a steal"

"I think we will see two waves of OT's in this draft.... big run in the 1st round and then a break before another run in the 3rd"

Follow Up to the above quote
Ducasse, Campbell, and Brown making it into the first wave of OTs?> "Brown has good chance"

In response to Trent Williams
"I know teams that think he's the top OT in the draft"

In Response to how far JPP could slide
"Titans would be his stopping point"

On Ben Tate
"2nd round too rich"

In response to taylor Mays to Patriots
"Belichick is obsessed with ball skills/instincts, Mays lacks both"

In response to Giants pick
"guessing a LB (McClain or Weatherspoon)"

" get a ton of calls from teams asking if certain players will fall to them..most popular ?'s- Bryant, Gresham, Pierre-Paul, Thomas"

In response to Tyson Alualu in 1st
"a reach but he's a solid player...great motor"

In response to Mays or Gresham
"I don't think Mays could cover Gresham"

"When we were stacking our board in BAL and compared a DL to an OL, Ozzie would always ask if the OL could block the DL... helped settle it"

In response to why Taylor Mays considered a 1st
"Height, weight, speed and helmet decal"

If im Belichick, and Kindle/Graham are both there, who I take?> "I like Graham but I bet he takes Kindle"

with Shonn Greene and LT is there any chance the Jets might shop Leon Washington?> "I would think they would listen"

Who is the first LSU guy to go? Lafell or C.Jones?> "likely Lafell..his Jr tape is really good. Drops and poor QB play this yr"

Dom Franks, where does he go?> "3rd/4th round"

Where do u see Tyson Alualu going? What round?> "early 2nd round"

Where do you see Price WR from Ohio U going?> "great SR Bowl and combine... could sneak into the 2nd round"

i hear nothing about Jacoby Ford, what round do u see him in?>> "5th round..."

thoughts on Carlton Mitchell?> "a lot of teams are intrigued with his speed... raw, raw, raw"

Bucky Brooks compared Damien Williams to Reggie Wayne, do you agree?> "Wayne's a lot stronger, both savvy/instinctive"

"USC WR Damien Williams is going to be a really good 2nd round pick... not explosive but a ready-made slot WR"

what do you think of Dan Williams to the chiefs at 5? > "I like that idea better than taking Bulaga... NT over RT"

"I know he ran 5 flat but I still think Brandon Spikes can be a solid starter in the 3-4... likely a 2 down run stopper. 4th round"

"I talked to an exec today that said the undersized RB's are here to stay... The run game is more perimeter oriented than it has ever been"

In response to which of the folloing are best in order
"On tape--Davis, Brown and then Campbell"

In response to possible Osi trade
"The Rams' pick at top of 2nd would be very attractive."

On who the Jets will target
"Jerry Hughes OB TCU... Gives them a pure pass rusher"

"Most teams agree on Spiller and Mathews as the top 2 RB's but there is a variety of guys penciled in as the #3 guy"

"The DL depth in this draft is as good as any year I can remember... You can revamp your front 4 with a 1st and 3rd rd player this year"

do you think that the broncs will select Bryant or McClain with their #11 > "Neither. Trust me."

is there any legitimacy to the stories of the Vikings taking a QB in round one? > "Yes."

will Jerry Hughes from TCU be available at 47 for the Panthers? > "No shot. Likely late 1st."

"There are 2 positions you almost always have to reach for-- LT and CB. They go higher than you grade them. Premium positions"

"I still think Haden will go before Wilson but I know several teams that have Wilson as the top guy. Keep an eye on McCourty too..."

Inresponse to his mock
"I had Linval Joseph going to SD b/c AJ doesn't care what perception is out there and Joseph can help on 3rd down unlike Cody"

"I've been told that Philly is likely to move up to Denver's spot tomorrow... lots of stuff floating out there right now"

"Heard a wild one about Philly possibly going after Spiller in that spot... how fast will that offense be???"

"I would be shocked if the Broncos ending up selecting at 11... I've had 4-5 different sources say they are bailing out of there"

"One rumor has Dallas going up to 13 for Dez Bryant... I tend to think they would be after an OT at that spot.. crazy stuff out there"

"I think Clausen, McCoy and Tebow all have a good shot of going in the 20's after teams in the 2nd trade up"

"I'm hearing about a ton of trades"

2010 Consensus WR Position Rankings

2010-04-09T13:47:00.002-04:00

The following are the consensus WR Position rankings for the 2010 WR draft class. They were compiled from 6 different scout/draft reporting services.

Dez Bryant
Golden Tate
Arrelious Benn
Demaryius Thomas
Brandon LaFell
Damian Williams
Eric Decker
Mardy Gilyard
Carlton Mitchell
Taylor Price
Riley Cooper
Jordan Shipley
Dezmon Briscoe
Jacoby Ford
Jeremy Williams
Andre Roberts
Marcus Easley
Mike Williams
Blair White
Danario Alexander
Emmanuel Sanders
Antonio Brown
Shay Hodge
David Gettis
Freddie Barnes
Joe Webb
Seyi Ajirotutu
Armanti Edwards
Kerry Meier
David Reed

2010 Consensus TE Position Rankings

2010-04-09T12:47:00.001-04:00

The following are the consensus TE Position rankings for the 2010 TE draft class. They were compiled from 6 different scout/draft reporting services.

Jermain Gresham
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernamdez
Jimmy Graham
Anthony McCoy
Dennis Pitta
Ed Dickson
Dorin Dickerson
Tony Moeaki
Garrett Graham
Andrew Quarless
Colin Peek
M. Hoomananwanui
Nate Byham
Clay Harbor
Jim Dray
Scott Sicko

Dates for Patriots “organized team activities”

2010-04-08T09:23:00.000-04:00

The league announced today the dates for “organized team activities” for all 32 clubs. Each team can have up to 14 practice days - all under the realm of being voluntary and non-contact.

The Pats have opted to go with 12 days: (May 24-27, June 1-4, June 7-8, June 10-11).

The club will also hold a mandatory rookie camp, and another mandatory veteran minicamp, all following the draft. Those dates should be announced fairly soon. The media will be allowed in to some of the OTA sessions, and all of the mandatory camps.

One of PFP's Favorite Wide Receivers In 2010 Draft

2010-04-05T19:30:00.002-04:00

I think most of you who follow us know we don't have a love affair with the WR position in general but one kid we really like and hope the Patriots take somewhere late is Emmanuel Sanders from SMU.

Our Reasons:

1) He played in a system similar to what the Patriots run, apparently.

2) He was rated 2nd in "Our Lads" wighted rating system for best combine WR performers for quickness, speed, change of direction, etc.

3) He was extremely productive for not 1 but all 4 years of his college career.

Year	Rec	Yrds	Avg
2009	98	1339	13.7
2008	67	958	14.3
2007	74	889	12
2006	46	605	13.2

4) We personally watched EVERY WR video of the position drills from the 2010 combine, that was available, and did not see anyone look better or smoother than he did doing the position drills. He made them look easy and effortless.

Update: Patriot players that have been signed, re-signed or lost.

2010-03-30T23:42:00.005-04:00

The Patriots took care of their own by re-signing the likes of Vince Wilfork, Stephen Neal and others. The main priority now is preparing for the upcoming draft.

The process starts with building a draft board in which the Patriots rank each player from top to bottom to ensure that when they pick, they're picking the player with the most value regardless of what their current needs are.

This year it will be interesting to see how they evaluate their own needs.

TEAM NEEDS

Defensive end

Outside Linebacker

Tight End

Wide Receiver

Running back

Cornerback/Safety

MEDICAL WATCH: No updates.

FRANCHISE PLAYER: NT Vince Wilfork (tendered at $7.003M; re-signed March 5 for $40M/5 yrs, $25M guaranteed/$18M SB).

TRANSITION PLAYER: None.

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

OLB Derrick Burgess had an extremely quiet five sacks in his first season in New England after joining the team via training-camp trade from the Raiders. He drew curious high praise from Bill Belichick late in the year and could get a chance to return to the team at a position at which it is dangerously thin.

P Chris Hanson had what may be best described as another "blah" year in New England. The Patriots have been happy with his situational punting in the past -- he had the fewest punts returned in the NFL -- but the team could and should look to upgrade at the spot after using the draft to add a young kicker and long snapper in recent years.

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT (not tendered offer)

RB Chris Taylor (not tendered at RFA) was on injured reserve and has never played for New England. If he's brought back it will be as a camp body.

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS (*indicates restricted because of uncapped year)

K* Stephen Gostkowski (tendered at $1.759M with second-round pick as compensation) is a former All-Pro. He had a decent season, and even showed improvement on his kickoffs. He'll get a decent tender and be back.

G* Logan Mankins (tendered at $3.268M with first- and third-round picks as compensation) is becoming a perennial Pro Bowler. He would have been a top lineman available if he were unrestricted.

LB* Pierre Woods (tendered at $1.176M with no compensation) had a chance to increase his role in 2009 given New England's lack of depth at outside linebacker. He played in 16 games with five starts, but was lackluster at best and remains a special-teams/backup type.

EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS FREE AGENTS

LB Gary Guyton (tendered at $470,000) played a significant role for the team in his first two seasons, including 16 starts out of necessity last fall. Ideally, probably a versatile sub player.

LB Bret Lockett (tendered at $395,000).

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

LB Tully Banta-Cain: UFA; $13.5M/3 yrs, $6M SB.
CB Leigh Bodden: UFA; $22M/4 yrs, $10M guaranteed.
RB Kevin Faulk: UFA; $2M/1 yrs, $1M SB.
OG Stephen Neal: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.
NT Vince Wilfork: FFA; $40M/5 yrs, $25M guaranteed/$18M SB.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

TE Alge Crumpler: UFA Titans; terms unknown.
LB Marques Murrell: Not tendered as RFA by Jets; terms unknown.
WR David Patten: FA; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

TE Chris Baker (released).
DE Jarvis Green: UFA Broncos; $20M/4 yrs.
LB Junior Seau (retired).
TE Benjamin Watson: UFA Browns; $12M/3 yrs, $6.25M guaranteed.

2010 NFL Draft Post Combine Consensus Top 75

2010-03-25T22:21:00.003-04:00

We put together a spreadsheet aggregating the player values from various top rated Draft Scout value boards and sorted the players by their ascending summed values.

The results are listed below...

Rank	Player
1	Ndamukong Suh
2	Gerald McCoy
3	Sam Bradford
4	Russell Okung
5	Eric Berry
6	Derrick Morgan
7	Bryan Bulaga
8	Rolando McClain
9	Joe Haden
10	Jimmy Clausen
11	Dan Williams
12	Trent Williams
13	Dez Bryant
14	Brandon Graham
15	Mike Iupati
16	Earl Thomas
17	Sean Weatherspoon
18	Taylor Mays
19	C.J. Spiller
20	Jared Odrick
21	Sergio Kindle
22	Jermaine Gresham
23	Jason Pierre-Paul
24	Ryan Mathews
25	Kyle Wilson
26	Everson Griffen
27	Devin McCourtey
28	Golden Tate
29	Jerry Hughes
30	Anthony Davis
31	Maurkice Pouncey
32	Charles Brown
33	Brian Price
34	Carlos Dunlap
35	Rob Gronkowski
36	Demaryius Thomas
37	Patrick Robinson
38	Kareem Jackson
39	Nate Alan
40	Terrance Cody
41	Colt McCoy
42	Jahvid Best
43	Jonathan Dwyer
44	Tyson Alualu
45	Arrelious Benn
46	Daryl Washington
47	Cory Wootton
48	Bruce Campbell
49	Cam Thomas
50	Ricky Sapp
51	Chad Jones
52	Toby Gerhart
53	Morgan Burnett
54	Dominque Franks
55	Damian Williams
56	Dexter McCluster
57	Brandon LaFell
58	LaMarr Houston
59	Alex Carrington
60	Koa Misi
61	Brandon Ghee
62	Jon Asamoah
63	Roger Saffold
64	Thaddeus Gibson
65	Montario Hardesty
66	Chris Cook
67	Aaron Hernandez
68	Vlad Ducasse
69	Tim Tebow
70	Reshad Jones
71	Jason Worilds
72	John Jerry
73	Perrish Cox
74	Jared Veldheer
75	Eric Norwood

2010 Patriot Draft Pick Selection Numbers and Round

2010-03-24T14:38:00.002-04:00

Picks highlighted in Red are compensatory picks and can not be traded.

#22 - 1st

#44 - 2nd

#47 - 2nd

#53 - 2nd

#119 - 4th

#190 - 6th

#205 - 6th (Jabar Gaffney)

#229 - 7th

#231 - 7th

#247 - 7th (Heath Evans)

#248 - 7th (Lonnie Paxton)

#250 - 7th (Lamont Jordan)